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Monday May 8, 2006 - 10:31:08 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• USD-JPY the big overnight mover.
• US Treasury could release FX Report this week – close call as to whether China is named as a manipulator.
• IMM spec positioning on EUR-USD reaches another record high as of last Tuesday.
• Definitive signal of policy pause at this week’s FOMC will allow room for further USD weakness.
• Uncertainty over this issue could provide for some interim USD support.
• UK PPI, Trichet feature today.

Market Outlook

USD-JPY has again been the main mover overnight with Japan returning from Golden Week. Comments last week from the Treasury’s Adams warning against verbal FX intervention continue to carry resonance, while the US Treasury’s FX report may also be released this week. A Treasury press briefing later today may reveal further details on the timing of this release.

The move on USD-JPY looks very negative and it will now be very difficult to regain ground above 114.25 and 115.50, both of which are required to forcefully stabilise the current situation. 111.00 should hold it today but there is clear risk of a test closer to 110 in the short-term, depending upon the tone of the FOMC announcement and general USD reaction, as well as the conclusions of the Treasury’s FX report. It is a close call as to whether they go on to name China as a currency manipulator. They want to maintain the pressure on China, but naming them will be a first step on the road to eventual protectionism and could provide further fuel to the more hostile elements of Congress. The recent G7 meeting and the role identified for the IMF as a surveillance unit of such matters may provide the US with some room for once again not naming China.

Uncertainty about the outcome of this week’s Fed announcement may just hold the USD bears at bay for the time being (net spec longs on EUR-UISD hit another record high as of last Tuesday at 74,474 contracts), but any indication about a near-term pause in rates would suggest further USD weakness in the short-term. Trichet speaks today in his capacity as G10 central bankers spokesman and the market will be keen to hear observations about global imbalances and Asian currency flexibility as well as any further thoughts on ECB policy. 1.2775 being breached on a closing basis is the positive development that is needed to prompt the next upmove on EUR-USD. Short-term supports are at 1.2715, 1.2675 and 1.2635.

Day Ahead
UK – PPI data will be watched by the market today after the strengthening seen in other data of late. The MPC sees PPI as a potential lead indicator of core CPI and it has started to turn higher in recent months. However, it remains well below the highs seen through Q4 2004 to Q3 2005 and 2.5%-plus will need to be seen in coming months to raise any major alarm. BRC retail sales is due tonight and base effects (different timing of Easter) should boost the y/y rate.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Manu output (Mar) m/m 09.00 +0.4%
GB PPI input (Apr) m/m 09.30 +1.5%
GB PPI output (Apr) m/m 09.30 +0.4%
GB PPI output core (Apr) y/y 09.30 +2.0%
DE Manu orders (Mar) m/m 11.00 +0.7%
Central banker’s regular bi-monthly meeting – Trichet (as
current spokesman) gives press conference around 12.00
CA Housing starts (Apr) 13.15 230k
US US Treasury press briefing 16.00
GB BRC retail survey (Apr) y/y 00.01 -1.4% last
GB Land registry house prices (Q1) y/y 00.01 +4.6% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Labour costs (Q1) q/q +0.7% +0.7% last
AU Retail trade (Mar) m/m +0.3% +0.4%
AU ANZ job ads (Apr) m/m -5.0% +2.0% last
CH Unemployment rate (Apr, sa) 3.4% 3.4%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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