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Daily Technicals: Euro trend broken overnight, deeper correction may be due

by Marc Spaelti

EURUSD: After a new high of 1.2835 after the FED rate hike, the Euro reversed and closed the day near the lows. Early in Asia this morning a sharp sell-off to 1.2715 was seen, trading through the bullish trend-line which currently runs through 1.2745. At the moment we are trading right at this level, a move to either side seems possible and while the Euro was the driving factor in the sustained rise over the course of the last few weeks, we may be up to another currency to decide the Dollars fate for the next two days. Initial support 1.2730, stronger 1.2710, a break points to 1.2660 and 1.2590, key support at 1.2550. Initial resistance 1.2760, more at 1.2790 and 1.2820, 1.2885 next.

GBPUSD: After peaking at a high of 1.8730 the pair turned, breached its 2-week trend-line at 1.8650 and fell to a low of 1.8535 overnight, correcting a full 2cent from the top. Key support to watch this morning is the 1.8510 level, while above, cable can trade sideways in a 1.8510 / 1.8630 range, initial resistance at 1.8590. A break to the downside risks further correction, which could take the Pound as low as 1.82 next week. On top the 1.8775 is first strong resistance, a daily or weekly close above this is bullish for a straight run up to next strong resistance at 1.8930, the least likely scenario from here this morning.

USDJPY: 110.10 low traded, before the day ended a swift correction brought the pair back up to 111.10 and 111.50 in Asia, bearish trend-line was only briefly scratched and is the initial resistance at 111.20 this morning. Sell here above 111 for a new try of the 110 level, target remains at 109.20 which can be seen by tomorrow night. Initial support at 110.85 and minor at 110.40, strong support 109.90. A new break of the trend should see a rise to 111.90 or even 112.60.

USDCHF: After a new low of 1.2120, the Dollar retraced near the 1.2260 key. This is the key to watch again today, intra-day allow for a rise to 1.2315, any higher indicates further correction towards 1.2465 where 1-month trend-line runs through. In case the 1.2260 survives the day, the Dollar remains under pressure to complete its fall to 1.2050.

@08.30GMT UK Industrial Production March
@09.00GMT Euroland GDP Q1
@12.30GMT US Retail Sales April
@12.30GMT US Weekly Jobless Claims

 

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