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Friday May 12, 2006 - 10:04:28 GMT
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Forex Market Update

USD sentiment remains bearish!

Japan chief cabinet secretary Abe says excessive yen moves bad for economy, will watch FX market moves closely. Says currencies should reflect economic fundamentals.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• New Zealand ANZ-business NZ PMI April, out at 53.1, vs. a prior reading 53.5.
• US advanced retail sales April, out at 0.5% vs. 0.8% expected.
• US retail sales less autos April, out at 0.7% vs. 0.9% expected.
• US initial jobless claims May 6, out at 324K vs. 315K expected.
• US business inventories March, out at 0.7% vs. 05% expected.
• Fed's Kohn & Moskow both said nothing on the economy & rate policy in their prepared remarks.
• UK NIESR GDP estimate April, out at 0.6% in line with the prior reading from March.
• Japan's Eco watchers survey: current April, out at 54.6 vs. a prior reading of 57.3.
• Japan's Eco watchers survey: outlook April, out at 55.0 vs. a prior reading of 57.3.
• Australian home loans march, out at 0.7% vs. 0.55 expected.
• Australian investment lending March, out at 2.5% vs. a prior reading of 2.0%.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Post FOMC and US FX report, was not enough to satisfy the dollar bears. In Europe EURUSD broke 1.2715 which was seen as a intra day breakout level, but rumors of BIS on the bid send EURUSD above 1.2715 after testing 1.2680 support. Today's US trade balance for March should be the volatility trigger and a weaker then expected number is likely to send EURUSD on another rally, but expect the long term 1.2890 retracement level to be key if the pair should have another strong day. Another interesting cross right now is GBPUSD which is the big performer right now Yesterday's upbeat data and mulled M&A positives send the pair to a 1.8866 high, with a medium term target of 1.9200.

USDJPY still struggles to stay above 110.00. Japanese officials continue to talk the JPY weaker with Japan chief cabinet secretary Abe out in the Asian session saying that excessive JPY moves bad for economy, but it seems as if the market is starting to neglect these type of statements on the weaker dollar outlook. The May 19th report where there is rumors of the BoJ using the word "expansion" which has not been used since 1991, will definitely give USDJPY the final push lower. A break of 108.75 would confirm medium term bearish technicals and give scope for a 105.50 target further out.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
www.saxobank.com

 

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