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Monday May 15, 2006 - 09:19:42 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Massive offers stopped Cable rise ahead of 1.90
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Euro was bid up to a new high mid-morning in Europe, reaching 1.2970. Cable traded up to 1.8999, large selling orders prevented the pair from rising further and markets retraced waiting for the US data release. The US March Trade Deficit stood at $62Bln, down from $65.6Bln in February and a lot lower than expected by market watchers. The surprised caused a great deal of intra-day volatility as short-term players quit their long positions, the Euro reversed nearly 100pips from the top to 1.2865, Cable did likewise, pulling back to 1.8885. An hour later, the preliminary May U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index stood at a disappointing 79.0, falling more than 8 points, stopping the Dollars correction. The week ended bid for the currencies, EURUSD closed well above of 1.2895, a big medium-term chart level.
The new week started with a new try at the top, EURUSD again traded to 1.2970 and Cable again reached a high just a wink shy of 1.9000. Again the market ran into a wall of sellers and the markets retraced for the European opening.
Todays Key Issues:
US Empire Manufacturing Survey for May is due at 12.30GMT. The Index stood at 15.8 in April and is expected to weaken to 15.0.
US NAHB Housing Market Index at 5pmGMT is expected to remain near 50, unchanged from April.
The Risk Today:
4H EURUSD: After a double-top this morning, the 1.2895 level was breeched and a first sell-off in Europe has brought us back to the 5-week rising support at 1.2825. This is the buying level for the bulls that expect us to break 1.30 without any deeper correction. While bullish trend in place, look to rise back to 1.2895, a renewed daily close above that is very bullish and bypassing 1.30 only a question of another day, target this week is 1.3160. But in the event that the bottom cedes, we can reach as low as 1.2715 today and have potential to dip as low as the 1.2590 key support by the end of the week.
4H USDJPY: 109.35 was tried twice and failed, with this the medium-term 109.20 level remains intact. This morning it has pulled-back to 110.50, it’s the first of two bearish trend-lines that have guided the pair from above 118. While 110.50 holds, look to sell again, for a new try lower, minor support at 110.10 and 109.70 on the way down. A break of 110.50 should lead 100 points higher to 111.55 in the short-term.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2970 S ||1.9000 K ||111.55 K ||1.2260 K |
|1.2895 S ||1.8925 M ||111.00 M ||1.2135 M |
|1.2870 M ||1.8885 S ||110.50 T ||1.2060 S |
|1.2840 ||1.8840 ||110.20 ||1.2060 |
|1.2825 T ||1.8820 S ||109.70 M ||1.2030 M |
|1.2760 M ||1.8775 S ||109.20 K ||1.1965 S |
|1.2715 S ||1.8690 T ||108.50 S ||1.1885 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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