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Monday May 15, 2006 - 12:34:00 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 15-May-2006....1229 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
----------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------

$-Swiss @ 1.2081/6.....Watching for confirmation
-------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2114-16 / 1.2144 / 1.2174-78
S: 1.2048-44 / 1.2003
The $-Swiss had a sharp upmove during the day after the sharp losses last week. It is currently trading near its days high. The immediate crucial Resistance is 1.2114 and if that is broken, the market could move up to 1.2174. The chances of a further upmove over today-tomorrow are very good, as the market has managed to climb above 1.2048, which was the projected Max High earlier in the day. That level is now a good Support. Just in case it breaks, it would cause a fall to 1.2003 and a lot of confusion.

Intraday we are neutral and would not like to trade, as we would like to look if the rally sustains. We were stopped out of our Short (initiated at 1.2037) at 1.2065.


Cable @ 1.8855/60...Corrective? Watch Support at 1.8790
--------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.8860-70 / 1.8900 / 1.8930
S: 1.8794 / 1.8764 / 1.8730
The Cable found Resistance at 1.90 and came off sharply during the day to hit a low of 1.8789, an important Support on the 4-hour chart. On the upside there is a Resistance at 1.8867 above which 1.8900 could be seen. An upmove beyond 1.8900 would suggest that the bigger Upmove is still in effect and may induce the buyers to come in.

On the downside the Supports are at 1.8794-89 and then at 1.8764. Intraday the bias is currently neutral and we would not like to trade currently.




Aussie @ 0.7644/9....Watching
---------------------------------
R: 0.7649 / 0.7674 / 0.7689
S: 0.7594-88 / 0.7554 /
The Aussie continued its early morning fall and hit an intraday low of 0.7606 midway during the day. The weakness was accentuated by a fall in the base metals prices on the LME. The Aussie has broken an important trendline, which was formed by joining the lows of 0.7014 (29-March-06), 0.7237 (13-April-06) and 0.7271 (17-Apr) on the Daily Candles. This now turns the things cautious as it has come after the Aussie has failed to move above the 0.7750 Level convincingly. HOWEVER, we also have a very important and crucial Support at 0.7588 on the Daily chart and while that holds, the overall upmove remains intact. That said, to gain safer grounds, we’d need to see a rise above 0.7674 at least.

Watching just now to see whether the current corrective fall can change into a proper downmove or not.




Happy Trading!

 

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