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Tuesday May 16, 2006 - 10:47:57 GMT
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Forex Market Update

USD consolidation in overnight markets.

Eyes today will be on the Emerging market currencies as well as Metals markets. Developments in these markets will likely determine USD's nearterm direction.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Norwegian Trade Balance (Apr) out at 35.8B vs. 33.0B expected.
• UK ODPM House Prices YoY (Mar) out at 3.3% vs. 4.0%.
• Canadian Manufacturing Shipments MoM (Mar) out at 1.6% vs. 1.0% expected.
• Canadian New Motor Vehicle Sales MOM (Mar) out at 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected.
• US Empire Manufacturing (May) out at 12.4 vs. 16.1 expected.
• US Net Foreign Security Purchases (Mar) out at $69.8B vs. $79.9B expected.
• UK Leading Indicator Index MoM (Mar) out at 0.6% vs. 0.8% previously.
• UK Coincident Indicator Index MoM (Mar) out at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously.
• US NAHB Housing Market Index (May) out at 45 vs. 50 expected.
• UK RICS House Price Balance (Apr) out at 15% vs. 14% expected.
• NZ Nonresident Bond Holdings (Apr) out at 69.7% vs. 68.0% previously.
• Japan Consumer confidence (Apr) out at 50.0 vs. 47.9 previously.
Several reasons being mentioned for the sudden USD strength Monday with the broad weakening in the metals markets, the risk aversion and flight from emerging markets currencies such as TRY, ZAR, PLN and HUF, or finally the rather severe correction in the equities markets. The latter however did fairly well towards European close regaining lost terrain intraday, and the US equity markets actually had a fairly decent day with Dow closing up 48 pts and Nasdaq down only 5 pts. Nikkei, however, closed on the weak side down more than 1.5%.
More likely extreme positioning is the likely cause of Mondays USD rally. CFTC data released Friday showed the net long position for EUR in non-commercial futures (ex-options) as per last Tuesday decreased slightly to a net +72,911 contracts (from the record long +74,474 contracts). More importantly though, the aggregate short USD position versus six major currencies widened to 20.7bn USD from 17.6bn USD the prior week. Analysts remark that, "this was the largest short aggregate USD position since December 2004, where EUR posted all time trading highs at 1.3670 and then fell to lows near 1.2730 by early February".

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Generally, we still favour a weaker USD in the weeks to come, however, short term we may see further USD strength judged by the technical picture and the bearish key day reversal for EUR/USD yesterday (daily close blw 1.2830). Longer term this just poses an opportunity and we will not be concerned about a more prolonged USD strength unless 1.2660/1.2690 area is compromised. Anyhow in our opinion stops should be kept very close or alternatively we suggest using FX options to play the short term direction.

Todays most important economic releases are as follows:
• 08:30 UK CPI (Apr), expected at 0.6%.
• 08:30 UK RPI (Apr), expected at 0.7%.
• 09:00 German ZEW –indices (May): Econ Sentiment, expected at 60.0. Current Situation, expected at 5.0.
• 09:00 EU ZEW (Econ. Sentiment) (May), expected at 55.5.
• 12:30 US PPI (Apr), expected at 0.8%. PPI ex. Food & Energy (Apr) expected at 0.2%.
• 12:30 US Housing Starts (Apr), expected at 1950K.
• 12:30 US Building Permits (Apr), expected at 2040K.
• 13:15 US Industrial Production (Apr), expected at 0.5%.
• 13:15 US Capacity Utilization (Apr), expected at 81.5%.
Also of note is the Atlanta FED Hedge Funds conference where FED Gov Kroszner speaks around 19:30 while FED's Bernanke speaks at 22:30.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
www.saxobank.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
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09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
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