Thursday May 18, 2006 - 10:35:05 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Fed in play...
â€śGet your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.â€ť
FX Trading â€“ Fed-in-playâ€¦
An inflation scare delivered in the form of higher than expected US CPI yesterday changed the market dynamics (though we donâ€™t know for how long) quickly from no-Fed to Fed-in-play.
Metalsâ€”which seem to be more a liquidity/speculation game at this bubbly level were whacked; gold gave back its $20 early gains to close lower; copper got creamed; and silver was slammed. Stocks tumbled. The lowly dollar bounced sharply higher.
What might tell us whether or not this â€śnew market dynamicâ€ť has legs? First, metals continue to sell off. Second, US Treasuries move higher representing funds taking some risk off the table of global speculationâ€”high yielding major currencies and exotics, emerging market bonds and stocks, etc. That would likely be dollar positive and something playable.
Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital
Black Swan Subscription-based Service
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