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Wednesday July 14, 2004 - 00:17:04 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro Vs U.S. Dollar 14th July 2004

Price 1.2330

Support....: 1.2345 ... 1.2385 ... 1.2415 ... 1.2435
Resistance: 1.2315 ... 1.2300 ... 1.2265 ... 1.2225

Bias: While 1.2350-85 holds bearish for 1.2260-65 and later to 1.2200

Bullish: The break of 1.2340 puts a bullish view on hold for now. Indeed the 1.2340-50 area looks like holding any attempts higher and only if this breaks would we look for a deeper pullback to 1.2385 but consider this as a cap. Thus only back above 1.2390 would bring a bullish bias back and prompt a test of the 1.2435 high and probably see further gains through to 1.2470 and 1.2540.

Bearish: The break of 1.2340 implies further losses and we feel there is a good chance that 1.2340-50 should hold the current pullback. However, we should place stops above the 1.2385 Fibonacci resistance. Once back below 1.2315 we would look for losses to continue to 1.2260-65 where a pullback is possible but while this remains below 1.2300-20 we look for a test down to the 1.2200-20 pivot support before this first leg lower completes. Further support is found in the 1.2145-80 congestion area.

Elliott Wave Comments

30th May

We are exceptionally frustrated to have missed the recent rally and have adjusted the daily cycles as shown above. The cycles look bullish for a further 5-10 days and we are approaching the key resistance areas of 1.2355-1.2455 which we feel will be tested during this period.

From the daily chart it can be seen that we have adjusted the decline from 1.2927 to a diagonal triangle Wave (A) within which the Wave [v] was very close to being a perfect 76.4% projection of the decline from 1.2927 to 1.2055. This now implies we should be looking for a three wave correction higher and Elliott Guidelines suggest this should be to the span of Wave [iv] (at 1.2456) with a focus on the extreme of Wave [ii] of Wave [V], this being at 1.2387.

In the rally from 1.1758 we have now labeled the 1.2180 high as Wave [a] and the decline to 1.1771 as Wave [b]. We therefore look for a five wave rally to complete Wave [c]. We can look at several measurements for Wave [c]. Clearly there are the Elliott Guideline targets at 1.2385-1.2456 which we should observe closely. We should also consider the Double Bottom at 1.1758-1.1771 which would project a minimum target at 1.2600. Also consider a 76.4% correction of the entire decline from 1.2927 to 1.1758 which rests at 1.2650

Internally in Wave [c] we have seen Wave i rally to 1.2059 and Wave ii down to 1.1893. We can derive two targets for Wave iii. The first is around 1.2290 (which we have seen on Friday) being a projection of 138.2% and the second is at 1.2360 being a projection of 161.8%. Generally the former projection of 138.2% is more common. Therefore, following a correction in Wave iv we will expect the final rally to reach either between 1.2385-1.2456 or all the way to the 1.2600-50 area. We shall need to assess this as price develops over the coming week.

July 12th

As suggested in the update above on the 30th May we are now appoaching the minimum target at 1.2456. Indeed, given the strategic nature of this level it is quite capable of holding this rally. However, the wave count shown below does project a target of 1.2540 both in the Wave [v] position and the Wave [c] of Wave [v] position together with a projection of Wave (a) and we therefore feel there is a chance of this higher level being attained. However, this would complete Wave (c) of a double zig-zag from 1.1758 and in line with the daily & weekly cycles we shall be looking for signs of reversal. Once the Wave [iv] low at 1.2265 is broken the next logical target will be the Wave (b) at 1.1975.

July 14th

The loss of 1.2340 is encouraging for the downside and while we feel a break of 1.2265 will imply losses down to 1.1975 at least, we feel there is a risk of a pullback from the 1.2200-20 area before the next leg lower can develop. The way the shorter term wave count is developing we feel that any direct decline to 1.2260-65 would complete Wave (iii) and after a pullback to 1.2300-20 in Wave (iv) the risk will be lower to the pivot support at 1.2200-20 in Wave (v).

(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

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