Monday May 22, 2006 - 09:59:34 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Some life in the old greenback?
â€śMoney frees you from doing things you dislike. Since I dislike doing nearly everything, money is handy.â€ť
FX Trading â€“ Some life in the old greenback after all?
â€śReal moneyâ€ť flow rules if this is risk aversion, as we suspected.
Risk (and levered positions) in the metals, emerging markets and exotic commodity currencies (and possibly some of the non-exotic variety), seems to be leading some â€śreal moneyâ€ť into liquidation mode.
Gold, Copper, Hang Seng and Brazil IBX Index Daily:
Why do we refer to the term â€śreal moneyâ€ť flow? We turn once again to Morgan Stanleyâ€™s Stephen Jen for his excellent definition and analysis [our emphasis]:
â€śUS real money under management is seven times larger than Asian official reserves. According to the Fedâ€™s Flow of Funds data, as of end-2005, total US real money under management was US$17.7 trillion: US$4.4 trillion for life insurance companies, US$6.0 for mutual funds and US$7.3 trillion for the private and public pension funds. This is almost seven times the size of the total official reserve holdings by the Asian central banks (US$2.6 trillion as of March 2006). Tracking their diversification pattern is more important because they are just so much bigger. Further, doing so is arguably easier because they are not as secretive as some of the foreign central banks.â€ť
â€¦and the amount of money diversified offshore in equities alone, between 2003-2005, by US fund mangers is roughly equal to the stock of Asian foreign reserves, according to Mr. Jen.
â€śIf we extended these trends to apply to all real money under management (US$17.7 trillion), total implied diversification outflows during 2003-05 were US$1.1 trillion, with about half of that (US$567 billion) taking place in 2004 alone, presumably propelled by the intensely USD-bearish sentiment that dominated the market back then. This US$1.1 trillion total value of foreign equity allocation happens to be roughly the same size as the net increase (US$1.2 trillion) in the total stock of Asian foreign reserves.â€ť
Though dollar bears abound, there may still be some life left in the old greenback after all if this game is about money flow. Stay tuned.
Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital
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