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Monday May 22, 2006 - 10:13:26 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: May. 22 2006, 05:58 GMT
A new week begins - USD showing higher lows last week setting up for possible correction higher.

Despite the successful defense of key USD resistance levels, the charts are starting to look like a correctional move is building.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• German Producer Prices as 1.0% vs. 0.7% expected.
• French GDP as 0.5% vs. 0.6 expected.
• CA Retail Sales as 1.5% vs 0.6% expected. Much stronger than anticipated.
Friday Japan's Fukui revealed that the BOJ did not discuss the timing of the end of the zero-rate-policy.


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The strong response to the rise in US April CPI and several rather hawkish FED comments last week may indicate that the market focus on price risks and thus potential for continuous FED tightening may be reemerging as supportive for USD – at least in the short term. Further, a continuation of the recent trend (weaker USD, stronger EUR and JPY) may reduce the need for rate hikes in both the Eurozone and Japan or at least of slowing the path of tightening.

The important levels to watch this week are at 1.2660/1.2690 EURUSD, 112.30 gap area in USDJPY, 1.8735 GBPUSD and 1.2320 in USDCHF. Are these levels broken we will expect a further USD strengthening to take place. Further, we strongly suggest keeping a close eye on the developments in the emerging currency markets as well as the metals market. Nervousness in these markets may spill over to the majors and create a flight to safety.
Economic releases today of interest is only the EU Trade Balance at 900 GMT. Also noteworthy is a speech by FED's Fisher in Dallas at 1700GMT. Later this week German GDP and IFO, BoC rate decision, US Durable Goods and New Home Sales, Q1 US GDP, Japan Trade Balance and US PCE Deflator.


Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.


Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2737 @ 05:28 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
EURUSD charts display lower tops on daily and hourly's. The target at 1.2980 was rejected early in last week thus putting of the move towards 1.3175 74% (from 1.3665-1.1639). With the trading patterns towards the end of last week, it is likely that a deeper correction is building. A break of 1.2660/90 area will confirm this and open for 1.2540/50 level (38.2% Fibo level of the 1.1830-1.2970 rise) and perhaps even 1.2470.

Monday:
Fridays desire to buy USD is not gone unnoticed and we believe the downside may be tested early this week. Bids at 1.2700 protects 1.2660/90 support, a break will set up for 1.2540/50 test.The upside finds resistance at 1.2790 and 1.2860/70 where we also find the hourly downtrend line. We suggest to await developments early Monday but will look to sell rallies or sell break blw 1.2660, alternatively buy 1 week At the Money Put options.

Resist.
1.3143
1.2962
1.2869
1.2737
1.2687
1.2599
1.2418
Support

Quoted:
22 May 06
05:28 GMT

British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8709 @ 05:28 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
GBPUSD experienced a very choppy week of consolidation and a deeper correction may be building. However, only a break of 1.8500 the top from September 2005 would suggest a downside wave. The upside seems to have found good resistance at 1.9000/25 ahead of our target of 1.9216, the high from April 2005.

Monday:
GBPUSD also displays lower tops with 1.8960 now protecting on hourly charts ahead of 1.90025. As with EURUSD we see a move lower if 1.8700/10 support breaks. This will open for 1.8630. Await developments and look for levels to sell. Alternatively buy 1 week At the Money Puts and trade the delta.

Resist.
1.9338
1.9078
1.8936
1.8709
1.8675
1.8558
1.8298
Support

Quoted:
22 May 06
05:28 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (112.16 @ 05:28 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
USDJPY extended the move to the downside and reached the 109.19 target (61% from 101.67-121.37) but never made it to 108.75 key support (lows from September 2005). USD strength has since reversed the pair now looking to challenge the 112.30 gap area from early May. A break here will set up a move to 114.00/15 resistance area.

Monday:
USD/JPY has been flirting with 112.30 gap area from early May. A break is likely, opening for 114.00/15 with 113.25 as interim resistance. Support is now found at 111.50/55 and more at 111.25. Looking to buy break above

Resist.
115.08
113.27
112.47
112.16
110.65
109.64
107.82
Support

Quoted:
22 May 06
05:28 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

 

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