Tuesday May 23, 2006 - 06:59:05 GMT
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Daily Technicals: Euro at the top of the range
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: 1.2745 gave way in Europeâ€™s morning and it was a one-way street up to 1.2885, the day closed underneath of the 1.2865 range-boundary. Looking to continue range-trade, we should be at the top, resistance at 1.2860 and 1.2885 are strong, there is space to move all the way back down to 1.2655/1.2700, initial support 1.2835 minor, 1.2780 stronger. Risk on the top is for a breech of 1.2885, setting up a re-try of the 1.2940 top, next large resistance 1.3000.
GBPUSD: 1.8650 held, a strong rally followed, 1.8775 resistance was bypassed in early NY and the pair rose to 1.8885, next large resistance. Currently just underneath of falling resistance at 1.8850, we are biased to sell with a tight stop around 1.89, looking to pull back to 1.8800 minimum, first strong support 1.8775, but weâ€™re likely to keep going to fall to a new low around 1.86, key support lies lower at 1.8500. On top a hourly close above 1.8885 is bullish, we should see the pair get a lift to 1.8950, key resistance 1.9000.
USDJPY: The pair turned and fell to break all support levels, 111.55 was still intact for the daily close, a new round of selling pushed the pair to 111.00. The end of this new bearish move cannot be called yet, only minor support at 111.00, next stronger at 110.50 and risk to dip as low as 109.90. However, should it turn here and move to close the day above 111.55 we can maintain a bullish bias to eventually correct to 113.85, 111.55 pivot, 111.80 minor resistance, 112.40 strong.
USDCHF: As expected the Dollar fell and it kept going to breech the 1.2080 key support. This rises the risk that the Dollar will fall further, reaching new lows. Strong initial support 1.2040, a breech there calls for 1.1960 and has further risk to see the pair fall to a max low of 1.1810 this week. To the top we need to bypass strong 1.2080/90 resistance area to stop a bearish move and keep the dollar on its corrective path. Key resistance today is at 1.2225.
@09:00GMT Euroland Industrial New Orders March
@14:00GMT FED Bernanke, Treasury Snow Senate testimony
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