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Tuesday May 23, 2006 - 08:42:13 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Trading ranges have been set
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
From the low opening levels in Europe with Cable at 1.8650 and the Euro near 1.27 it was a one-way street higher to return all the way to the top of this weeks expected trading range. Key resistance levels in Euro at 1.2885, Cable 1.8885 must be watched closely, while underneath, we are looking to simply return to the weeks opening levels.
A new round of talks that the BOJ’s first rate hike is around the corner caused a deeper than expected USDJPY to fall through key support at 111.55 early morning. BOJ Fukui spoke of avoiding excessively loose monetary policy and that interest rate levels would gradually be adjusted (up). USDJPY fell to a low of 111.00, without a bounce back above the 111.55 key, we risk further descent to re-test the 109.20 low.
Todays Key Issues:
Again hardly any trade data today, Euroland Industrial New Orders for March are due at 9am GMT, expectations are for a much lower 0.3% growth compared to a 2.7% rise in February.
FED Bernanke, Treasury Snow and SEC Cox are testifying in front of the US Senate Banking Committee from 2pmGMT onwards.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: We’ve traded up to the top of the range yesterday, this morning early Europeans were quick to sell and we are currently 40pips off from the top. Expectations are to continue this side-ways movement at least another 24h, hence we have plenty of space to fall towards 1.2650. Risk on top is limited, it needs a daily close above 1.29 for a try of the psychological 1.30 level. While upside-prospects are good in the longer-term, we believe that EURUSD will first correct to as low as 1.25 before attempting the next larger move higher.
1-H GBPUSD: Similar picture on Cable, with the bullish move yesterday taking the pair up to the top of the expected trade-range, 1.8885 did well to top the market and a swift return to 1.8810 has just been seen. Expect trading to slow, 1.8770 may be attacked in the afternoon, a break through that has lots of space for lower levels, key support much lower near 1.8500.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2940 S ||1.9000 K ||112.40 S ||1.2320 S |
|1.2885 K ||1.8950 M ||111.80 M ||1.2260 K |
|1.2865 T ||1.8885 P ||111.55 P ||1.2085 K |
|1.2835 ||1.8820 ||111.40 ||1.2080 |
|1.2835 M ||1.8800 M ||111.00 M ||1.2040 S |
|1.2780 S ||1.8775 S ||110.50 S ||1.1960 K |
|1.2700 S ||1.8705 M ||109.90 S ||1.1880 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
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