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Wednesday May 24, 2006 - 09:48:14 GMT
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Fore Market Update

USD within recent ranges – no clear direction for the moment.
The previous session has held within recent trading ranges and near term directions are cloudy.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• EU Industrial New Orders -2.4% vs 0.7% expected.
• Richmond FED Manufacturing index came out as 1 vs 18 expected.
• Bernanke yesterday stated he still sees upside risk to inflation and he will watch data very closely before next meeting in one months time. He added that the “CNBC episode was lapse of judgment” and he will confine comments to formal arenas in the future. He wishes to make no remark to what stocks should do, but a lot of factors affect equity markets.
• The World Bank's China country director David Dollar has been reported cautioning that a sudden change in the YUAN is not desirable as it would have "unpredictable effects" on growth.
• Japanese Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Mar) out at -0.6% vs. -0.2% expected.
• Japanese All Industry Index MoM (Mar) out at -0.4% vs. -0-1% expected.
• BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Showing some worries about hiking too early. Mentioning risks of speculation that BoJ would hike earlier than expected. Overall dovish.

Tuesdays trading sessions remained in recent ranges and the market seem a little bewildered about the near term direction for USD. Both sides of the ranges were tested in many pairs with no definite breaks.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The rejection of USD highs Monday still leads us to the conclusion that the negative USD sentiment has definitely reasserted itself after just a few days of correction, but the moves overnight again showing a higher low for USD. Market is indecisive about the near term direction, and the safest way to trade the market in this environment is by buying options and trade delta against it.

Today is considerably more data heavy than the previous days with Swedish PPI and Unemployment, German IFO, Canadian Leading Indicators and BoC Rate Decision, US Durable Goods and New Home Sales.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.


Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2783 @ 06:10 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
EURUSD charts display lower tops on daily and hourlies. The target at 1.2980 was rejected early in last week thus putting of the move towards 1.3175 74% (from 1.3665-1.1639). With the trading patterns towards the end of last week, it is likely that a deeper correction is building. A break of 1.2660/90 area will confirm this and open for 1.2550 level perhaps even 1.2470.
Wednesday:

The near term direction for EURUSD in a bit uncertain. Rejection at the downside and at the same time lower highs suggest some uncertainty about near term direction. We pierced the 1.2872 resistance but could not maintain break. Next level at 1.2920 was never in danger. Minor support at 1.2765 ahead of 1.2700. In this environment we suggest to buy 1 week At the Money options and trade the delta against the option.

Resist.
1.2980
1.2907
1.2860
1.2783
1.2787
1.2761
1.2688
Support

Quoted:
24 May 06
06:10 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8758 @ 06:10 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
GBPUSD experienced a very choppy week of consolidation and a deeper correction may be building. However, only a break of 1.8500 the top from September 2005 would suggest a downside wave. The upside seems to have found good resistance at 1.9000/25 ahead of our target of 1.9216, the high from April 2005.
Wednesday:

GBPUSD continued the rollercoaster moves. To the upside 1.8885 is protecting on hourly charts ahead of 1.8960. Support is found at 1.8735/40 now ahead of 1.8630. In this environment we suggest buying 1 week At the Money options and trade the delta.

Resist.
1.9040
1.8930
1.8865
1.8758
1.8756
1.8711
1.8602
Support

Quoted:
24 May 06
06:10 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (112.38 @ 06:10 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
USDJPY extended the move to the downside and reached the109.19 target (61% from 101.67-121.37) but never made it to 108.75 key support (lows from September 2005). USD strength has since reversed the pair now looking to challenge the 112.30 gap area from early May. A break here will set up a move to 114.00/15 resistance area.
Wednesday:
USDJPY broke higher in late US trading. Resistance at previous highs of 112.90/113 area. Support now found at 110.80/90 and 110.35. Await developments or trade via options.

Resist.
113.73
112.69
112.33
112.38
111.28
110.60
109.56
Support

Quoted:
24 May 06
06:10 GMT

Risk warning
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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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