Thursday May 25, 2006 - 06:57:47 GMT
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Daily Technical: Keeping a bullish Dollar bias
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: European traders bid the Euro up, once again the 1.2885 key resistance did well and the Euro fell to a low of 1.2735 before London closed, since then weâ€™ve seen a rebound to 1.2785, this is initial resistance this morning. Expect to start in a very tight range of 1.2750/90, a break on top leads to 1.2830, 1.2885 remains key. More risk for a break to the downside with room to advance to 1.2690 or 1.2665 today and complete the correction to 1.2550 key by Friday.
GBPUSD: Initial move up was stopped at 1.8850, a sharp sell-off saw cable dip 2 cents to 1.8650. Outlook till Friday is for further weakness down to 1.8510 or as low as 1.8420. Minor resistance only at 1.8710, strong at 1.8750 must hold the day to keep the bearish view intact. A higher daily close should see the pair continue to evolve sideways between 1.87 and 1.89.
USDJPY: Fairly wide range of 111.60 to 113.00 did not break any major chart-levels, on top 113.00 strong, maybe a slight bullish bias to push this correction a tad further, 113.40 is key resistance, an intra-day spike to 113.85 is possible. To the downside minor support 112.65, strong at 112.00, key support remains at 111.55.
USDCHF: The pair tested both sides of the range, trading down to 1.2020 initially, just to return to the top at 1.22. 7-week bearish trend-line has now caught up with the market, it is a strong initial resistance at 1.2185 this morning. Because of this trend-line, USDCHF is the only major pair we have a bearish-Dollar bias for the moment, while underneath we risk to further the medium-term move, minor support 1.2135, strong at 1.2065, key 1.2000, a break there send the Dollar in search of a new low. On top a break of the trend-line can lift the pair to 1.2240 intra-day, a high daily close is very bullish, targeting a return to as high as 1.2550 next week.
@08:30GMT UK preliminary GDP Q1
@12:30GMT US Initial Jobless Claims
@14:00GMT US Existing Home Sales April
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