User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday May 25, 2006 - 10:25:19 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• FX majors fairly steady – EUR-USD remains constrained by over-positioning/momentum loss.
• Market still waiting for tomorrow’s monthly core PCE prices.
• Japanese call rate rises again – but BoJ may seek to calm this over coming days.
• NZD rallies further.
• Q1 US GDP/core PCE prices, existing home sales feature today - Japanese CPI tonight.

Market Outlook

Another day of frustrated direction for the USD yesterday with early EUR-USD gains eventually being abandoned. There is nothing really new to add on this, with EUR-USD basically suffering from some over-positioning and a loss of momentum. Yesterday’s data flow was mixed but on another day could easily have been seen as positive, especially given the resilience of the IFO number. There are more US releases today (see below), although it is tomorrow’s core PCE price index for April that the market really wants to see, as this will dictate the sense of inflation and interest rate risk.

EUR-USD managed to close above its 20-day moving average (currently 1.2758) and back above 1.2800 early today would alleviate some of the intra-day downside risk. Below 1.2685 is required to open up corrective pressures further.

The o/n rate continues to move higher in Japan, although this may just be a temporary side effect of the BoJ’s desire to bring current deposits lower, which are continuing to fall. Yesterday the weighted average for the call rate was 0.035%, while today it has moved above 0.05% (0.059%). If a 0.05%-plus rate is tolerated in the days ahead this would be seen as being somewhat out of line with their current pledge to keep the o/n rate at effectively zero and will boost expectations for a modest rate hike in the month ahead. However, more likely is that the BoJ will try and manage the rate lower again in coming days. There were ripple effects down the curve today e.g. Euro-Yen future for Sep was 5bp higher at 0.54%, while 1-mth LIBOR is around 0.15% up from 0.09% a couple of days ago.

The NZD has been the main performer today, building on the advances seen over the past couple of days. The better news on the trade balance last night was a contributory factor although one can’t help thinking that what is being seen is another example of position adjustment. Being short NZD, particularly against the AUD, has been a popular theme during 2006 and funds may now be cutting back on this trade. AUDNZD has fallen sharply over the past couple of days, while uncertainty about the prospects for hard commodities and gold may also be undermining confidence in this type trade. The AUD is exposed to hard commodities, where there is currently much uncertainty, while the NZD is only exposed to soft commodities, which have been less volatile. Above 0.6450 on NZD-USD would see this extending further, while 1.1675-80 is the next support on AUD-NZD. However, the AUD should eventually bounce back against the NZD once the dust settles.

Day Ahead
US – the second estimate of Q1 GDP is also released in the US and as well as the growth number there will also be some focus on core PCE prices, which may provide some clues about possible back revisions to Friday’s monthly data for April. Q1 GDP will already be seen as a little ‘old’, so there will need to be some sizeable revisions to get the market interested. In the current environment the market would perhaps be more sensitive to weaker rather than stronger data. Existing home sales were stronger than expected last month although part of this may have been a further rebound from the weakness seen in January. New home sales did show some resilience yesterday, albeit after some very sizeable revisions. Both of these series seem to been displaying a lot of volatility at the present time. However, the trend still seems to be down, with new home sales for example well below the levels seen in H2 last year. For the same conclusion to be drawn on existing home sales a sub-7.00m number would be helpful today. Jobless claims are also due and while some layoffs in the Puerto Rico government continue to put upward pressure on initial claims, the underlying trend also seems to be creeping a little higher.

Japan – CPI is due tonight. Core Nationwide CPI has been at +0.5% y/y in each of the past three months and the market is looking for the same again. An unusual outcome will be required to freshly influence thinking on BoJ policy risk.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

Holiday in some parts of Europe – Ascension Day
US GDP (Q1, 2nd est) saar 08.30 +5.8%
US Core PCE prices (Q1, 2nd est) saar 08.30 +2.0% (1st est)
US Initial claims (w/e May 20) 08.30 315k
US Continuing claims (w/e May 13) 08.30 2389k last
US Existing home sales (Apr) 10.00 6.79m
JP CPI Tokyo (May, core) y/y 19.30 +0.3%
JP CPI Nwide (May, core) y/y 19.30 +0.5%
JP CSPI (Apr) y/y 19.50 -0.1%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Trade balance (Apr) NZ$18.6m -NZ$210m
JP Trade balance (Apr, sa) ¥383bn ¥627bn
AU House price index (Q1) q/q +1.0% 0.0%
IT Business confidence (May) 96.8 95.6
GB GDP (Q1, 2nd est) q/q +0.6% +0.6%
IT Retail sales (Mar) m/m -0.4% +0.1%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105