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Thursday May 25, 2006 - 10:33:39 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Many European Markets remain closed today
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
European traders again bid up the currencies, EURUSD went for a re-test of the 1.2885 key-level, Cable topped at 1.8850 before US data squeezed out intra-day long positions and the Dollar recovered. US Durable Goods were down by an unexpectedly large 4.8% in April but with analysts pointing to the very volatile nature of this data-series, pressure on the Dollar soon ceased. April New Home Sales saved Dollar bulls, a 5% monthly increase sparked a Dollar rally, the fact that data back to the month of November was revised downwards, did not seem to bother traders. Cable fell very hard, down 2 cents in a rash move, confirming our view that the consolidation phase will continue into the next week, EURSD returned to the mid 1.27’s.
The extremely volatile commodities markets continue to attract speculators. With daily movements of 5% and more, opportunities as well as risks in Gold-trading are enormous. Since its peak at $730 on May 12th, the bullion has lost nearly $100, is time for investors to go long again? A look at the daily chart reveals, that the pair has so far corrected about 50% of its rise since February. The speed of this rise bears all signs of a speculative bubble, overshooting its natural target of $650 by far. We therefore expect to complete the current correction to reach the 62% pull-back level at $611, giving the underlying 6-month trend time to catch up with the market.
FED Governor Kroszner expects the US economic growth to slow to a more sustained pace going forward. He also believes that changes in interest rates affect markets faster and stresses that the FED needs to continue to be very vigilant.
Todays Key Issues:
Markets remain closed in wide parts of continental Europe for ascension-day holiday, expect small ranges during European hours.
UK preliminary GDP data for the 1st Quarter are due at 8.30am, it is forecast to grow at an unchanged pace of 0.6%, its up 2.2% YoY.
US Weekly Jobless Claims at 12.30 are expected to trop by 50k after the ‘Puerto-Rico’ adjustment last week drove the data to 367k last week. The 4-week average should remain high at 333k.
1st Quarter US GDP out at the same time should increase to a strong 5.9%, it stood at 4.8% in Q4 of 2005.
US April Existing Home Sales are due at 2pmGMT, it is believed to drop 2.5% to 6.75m units.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: After the latest try at 1.2885 top and a renewed pullback to 1.2750 we maintain our view that consolidation is ongoing. Having tried the top noumerous times this week, we have a strong bias to test the downside for a low weekly closing, initial support 1.2750, a break leads to 1.2700 or 1.2660 today, risk is to deepen the correction to as low as 1.25 by Friday.
4-H GBPUSD: We may have seen a decisive bearish move yesterday with a break and daily close underneath of 1.8775 last night. The falling tops over the past few days show the pairs failing strength and we expect the current correction to take the pair down to 1.85 before the week is up. Strong initial support at 1.8665, a break should ignite the next step lower, key resistance on top at 1.8775.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2885 K ||1.8885 S ||113.85 S ||1.2320 S |
|1.2830 S ||1.8775 K ||113.40 K ||1.2240 K |
|1.2790 S ||1.8710 M ||113.00 S ||1.2185 T |
|1.2770 ||1.8690 ||112.00 ||1.2180 |
|1.2750 M ||1.8665 S ||112.35 M ||1.2135 M |
|1.2690 S ||1.8610 M ||111.90 S ||1.2065 S |
|1.2660 S ||1.8510 S ||111.55 K ||1.2000 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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