Friday May 26, 2006 - 07:03:19 GMT
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Daily Technicals: Keeping a bullish $-bias today
by Marc spaelti
EURUSD: Tight ranges around 1.2770 in Europe before late New York went for a spike to 1.2825 and back down overnight. The top is still holding, strong resistance 1.2830, key above at 1.2885, a weekly close underneath leaves us stuck in further range-trading. Today we start with a strong initial support at 1.2775, while this holds we expect a range-bound day similar to yesterday. A break to the downside has room for 1.2700 or 1.2665 key support, a low weekly close is bearish for 1.24-ish next week.
GBPUSD: Cable actively traded a 30-pip range around 1.87 before going for a test of the 1.8775 key resistance. It held and the pair fell back to the lows. Currently at 1.8715 we have a minor resistance 1.8740, key at 1.8775, a break there can see 1.8885 max and keeps the pair in a high range of 1.87-1.90 next week. We are still biased to see the pair fall, strong initial support at 1.8690, minor 1.8650, a dip lower risks a strong move to as low as 1.85 or 1.8420 max.
USDJPY: It again traded the full 111.55 to 113.00 range, both chartpoints remain strong, we see little reason to leave this range. Trading near 112, there is more potential to the upside, a possible intra-day break of 113.00 can lead to 113.40 or 113.85 max, a higher weekly close is very bullish. A move down through 111.80 initial support and a break of the 111.55 key can see a dip to 111.10, any lower weekly close calls for a retry of the 109.20 support next week.
USDCHF: It traded around the 1.2180 level in a tight range, none-the-less the old medium-term trend-line was broken with a high daily close at 1.2200. This is a bullish sign, expect to give 1.2260 a good try today, a break can lead to 1.2330 in calm markets and 1.2450 if volatility picks up. In either case a close above 1.2260 is bullish for a move towards 1.2550 next week. In order to remain with a bearish bias, the pair needs to close underneath of the 1.2150 initial support, key support today at 1.2065 and strong level at 1.2000.
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