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Friday May 26, 2006 - 08:38:16 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
The week is to end on a bullish-$ note
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
As expected, Thursday was a day with very limited interests and narrow trading ranges as a good part of Europe stayed away for the day. EURUSD was held underneath of 1.28 before a late New York rally saw the pair spike to 1.2830 and back down, at the same time Cable tested its 1.8775 key resistance and returned to 1.8700. The most important event was the break of the medium-term bearish USDCHF trend-line with a high daily close at 1.2200, confirming our outlook of continued correction and we expect the Dollar to close the week a touch higher.
US data on Thursday was not exceptional. The GDP grew at an increased speed of 5.3% vs. its initial estimate of 4.8%. While a growth rate above 5% is fairly impressive, it comes short of expectations. This being a backward-looking data, it does not have much influence on coming expectations and data and its influence on markets was limited. US Weekly Claims disappointed, falling ‘only’ 40k to 329 as Puerto Rico was again showing a massive increase of 26k in Initial Claims. The 4-week average rose to 337k, the highest level in over 6 months.
ECB Likanen made some very hawkish remarks to a Finish paper. While he stressed that nothing he said was binding, he remarked that indicators show a growing European economy, rising inflation risks and still very low interest. Asked about the strong Euro he said that the exchange rate is one factor affecting stability of prices.
Japans Finance Ministers, a known dove, this morning said that Japan’s economy remained in deflation, in a new attempt to tone down market expectations of a first rate hike in the next 2 months.
Todays Key Issues:
At 12.30GMT, US April Personal Income is expected to grow at an increased pace of 0.8% compared to 0.5% in March. Personal Spending, due at the same time, should increase by an unchanged 0.6%.
Final U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May is expected to be revised down 80 from 87.4.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: Over the past days a minor support has developed, it lies at 1.2775 this morning and is the key level to watch intra-day, a break is bearish for a fall to 1.27-ish. Resistance at 1.2840 is expected to be strong, key resistance for today remains at 1.2885. A lower weekly close keeps the current corrective movement intact and the Dollar should eventually dip to the mid 1.25’s.
4-H USDCHF: Medium-term trend was broken on Thursday and it is currently testing that old resistance from the top. Expect this 1.2140 level to hold, a return to 1.2240/60 key level is expected later on, a break and daily close higher is bullish for a rise towards 1.2550 next week. Risk to the downside should be limited to 1.2070 today, but closing the week inside the bearish trend calls for a retry of the 1.1920 level next.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2885 K ||1.8885 S ||113.85 S ||1.2330 S |
|1.2830 S ||1.8775 K ||113.40 K ||1.2260 K |
|1.2820 M ||1.8740 M ||113.00 S ||1.2225 M |
|1.2780 ||1.8730 ||111.90 ||1.2150 |
|1.2770 S ||1.8690 S ||111.80 M ||1.2135 S |
|1.2700 S ||1.8650 M ||111.55 K ||1.2065 K |
|1.2660 K ||1.8510 S ||111.10 S ||1.2000 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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