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Friday May 26, 2006 - 09:39:50 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: May. 26 2006, 06:03 GMT

USD traded on the weaker side after rather quiet sessions.
Thursday was fairly quiet despite choppy moments. JPY stronger across the board on CPI expectations and USDJPY rejection near 113.00.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK GDP Q/Q (1Q P) out at 0.6% as expected.
• Italian Retail Sales sa M/M (Mar) out at -0.4% vs. 0.1% expected.
• US GDP Annualized (1Q P) out at 5.3% vs. 5.8% expected.
• US GDP Price Index (1Q P) out at 3.3% as expected.
• US Personal Consumption (1Q P) out at 5.2% vs. 5.6% expected.
• US Core PCE Q/Q (1Q P) out at 2.0% as expected.
• US Initial Jobless Claims out at 329K vs. 315K expected.
• US Existing Home Sales (Apr) out at 6.76M vs. 6.75M expected.
• Japan, mix of CPI numbers came out more or less as expected.

Thursday was a very quiet day since a lot of European countries were closed for holiday, and after the weaker US economic releases US players only made a feeble attempt to weaken USD - but without great success. The market still seem uncertain about the near term direction for USD. JPY strengthened as rumors were going around that Fridays CPI numbers would be higher than expected, however, a firm rejection at 113 USDJPY after several days test probably also had longs cave in. As it turned out the inflation numbers were more or less in line with expectations – some a tad higher, some as expected.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The market is indecisive about the near term direction, and the safest way to trade the market in this environment is by buying options and trade delta against it.

Friday may also be a day with less action than usually the past weeks, since both UK and US is closed for bank holidays on Monday. We may see a test of the recent ranges but position squaring will likely dominate the picture.
Economic releases of importance are; German CPI, US Personal Income & Spending, US PCE Deflator, US PCE Core MoM, and US Michigan Confidence.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2775 @ 05:56 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
EURUSD charts display lower tops on daily and hourlies. The target at 1.2980 was rejected early in last week thus putting of the move towards 1.3175 74% (from 1.3665-1.1639). With the trading patterns towards the end of last week, it is likely that a deeper correction is building. A break of 1.2660/90 area will confirm this and open for 1.2550 level perhaps even 1.2470.

Friday:
We saw a test of levels just above 1,2800 but with no follow through. Some minor resistance at 1.2820/25 ahead of 1.2885/90 resistance (high for the week). To the downside we find minor support at 1.2730 ahead of 1.2700. In this environment we suggest to buy 1 week At the Money options and trade the delta against the option.

Resist.
1.2930
1.2859
1.2829
1.2775
1.2759
1.2718
1.2648
Support

Quoted:
26 May 06
05:56 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8712 @ 05:56 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
GBPUSD experienced a very choppy week of consolidation and a deeper correction may be building. However, only a break of 1.8500 the top from September 2005 would suggest a downside wave. The upside seems to have found good resistance at 1.9000/25 ahead of our target of 1.9216, the high from April 2005.

Friday:
GBPUSD followed in EURUSD’s footsteps all day. Minor resistance at 1.8750 ahead of 1.8885 which is a formidable resistance. Support at 1.8650 ahead of 1.8630. In this environment we suggest buying 1 week At the Money options and trade the delta.

Resist.
1.8878
1.8796
1.8764
1.8712
1.8682
1.8632
1.8550
Support

Quoted:
26 May 06
05:56 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (112.06 @ 05:56 GMT)
Weekly market update 21-05-2006
USDJPY extended the move to the downside and reached the109.19 target (61% from 101.67-121.37) but never made it to 108.75 key support (lows from September 2005). USD strength has since reversed the pair now looking to challenge the 112.30 gap area from early May. A break here will set up a move to 114.00/15 resistance area.

Friday:
USDJPY was knocked lower after repeated rejections at 113 lvl. O/n we found some support at 111.45/50 level, below awaits the stronger area of 110.85/95. Prefer to trade via options for the moment.

Resist.
114.73
113.43
112.61
112.06
111.31
110.85
109.55
Support

Quoted:
26 May 06
05:56 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
www.saxobank.com

 

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