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Monday May 29, 2006 - 15:21:48 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (29 May 2006)



The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2770 level and was supported around the $1.2715 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2970 to $1.2690. Liquidity was significantly reduced on account of market holidays in the U.K. and U.S. and will return to normal tomorrow. The German June GfK consumer sentiment indicator rose to 6.8, the highest reading since 2001, from May’s upwardly-revised 5.8 level. Also, the EMU-12 current account deficit was reduced to -€3.2 billion in March from -€4.0 billion in February. Both of these data helped the common currency gain ground. In U.S. news, traders continue to discuss a story that U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow will be replaced soon by Bush friend Don Evans. Some traders believe the U.S. dollar could weaken further if Evans replaces Snow because Evans is seen as being tougher on China with regard to currency values. Important U.S. data this week to be released this week include Thursday’s ISM manufacturing index and Friday’s May non-farm payrolls report. Market participants also await the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes from 10 May, to be released on Wednesday. Any indication that Fed policymakers were closer to ending their long-standing policy tightening cycle than previously suspected could pressure the dollar. Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2800 figure.

¥/ CNY

The yen gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥112.15 level and was capped around the ¥112.70 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just below the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥147.65 to ¥101.30. Data released in Japan overnight saw April retail sales fall 0.6% y/y. Bank of Japan injected some ¥1.5 trillion overnight into the money market – the largest amount ever – to keep overnight interest rates from moving too high. Most traders believe the central bank is inching closer to lifting borrowing costs from near zero per cent. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥111.55 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥143.00 figure and was capped around the ¥143.45 level. The British pound and Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥208.70 and ¥91.55 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 8.0211 in over-the-counter trade, down from CNY 8.0250, and at CNY 8.0213 in the exchange-traded market. The pair moved lower on news that China announced new measures to slow the red-hot property market there. China indicated it will tax proceeds from the sale of homes sold within five years of purchase and increase the required down payment on mortgages. China recently hikes interest rates and today’s announcement is seen as another indication that it may plan to apply more macroeconomic tightening.


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.8640 level and was supported around the $1.8560 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.9025 to $1.8530. The U.K. market holiday resulted in reduced liquidity today. Hometrack reported May house prices were up 0.6% m/m, the sixth consecutive monthly rise, but reported home prices may cool in H2 2006. Cable offers are cited around the US$ 1.8715 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6860 level and was supported around the ¬₤0.6845 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2220 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2280 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.3195 to CHF 1.1920. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.2155 level. The euro and British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.5600 and CHF 2.2750 levels, respectively.

AUD

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.7595 level and was supported around the $0.7565 level. Australian dollar offers are cited around the US$ 0.7615 level.

CAD

The Canadian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1025 level and was capped around the C$ 1.1075 level. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.1160 level.

NZD

The New Zealand dollar was little-changed vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the kiwi tested bids around the US$ 0.6330 level and was capped around the $0.6355 level. NZIER reported New Zealand’s economic growth is expected to moderate to 0.8% for the year to March 2007 from 2.1% in the year to March 2006. New Zealand dollar offers are cited around the US$ 0.6375 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested bids around the US$ 647.20 level and was capped around the $654.28 level. Silver came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested bids around the US$ 12.62 level and was capped around the $12.84 level.

Crude oil

Crude oil closed around the US$ 71.35 level on Friday and dealing in light, sweet NYMEX crude futures for July delivery will resume tomorrow.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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