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Tuesday May 30, 2006 - 10:18:35 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: May. 30 2006, 06:10 GMT
Monday was exactly as quiet as expected - and then USD weakened in Asia on speculation of a new US Treasury Secretary

No surprises on a day where the FX market took a breather after a couple of volatile weeks. Market is speculating that next Treasury Secretary wants weaker USD.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• German GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun) out as 6.8% (5.8% last) – much stronger than expected and a high since 2001.
• Swedish Trade Balance (Apr) came out as 13.1 Bln vs. expected at 14.3Bln.
• Swedish Consumer Confidence (Apr) out at 19.1 vs. expected at 16.8
• Swedish Manufacturing Confidence (Apr) out at 2.0 vs. expected at 3.5
• Euro-Zone Current Account nsa. (Mar) out as -3.2 Bln vs. expected at -1.0 Bln.
• Japanese Jobless Rate (Apr) out at 4.1% vs. expected at 4.1%.
• Japanese Industrial Production (Apr P). MoM out at 1.5% vs. exp. at 1.8%,
• Japanese Overall Household Spending (Apr P). YoY out at -2.0% vs. exp. at -1.4%.
• Australian Retails Sales (Apr) out at 1.4% vs. 0.3% expected.
• Australian Building Approvals MoM (Apr) out at -3.4% vs. 1.0% expected.
• Japanese Small Business Confidence (May) out at 49.2 vs. 50.2 expected.

UK Times ran an article this morning sending USD lower. Columnist Gerard Baker believes that a Texas oil man named Don Evans is a likely replacement for John Snow. He made his name as a key political operative during Bush’s successive runs for governor and president. If he is appointed, he is NOT likely to make much effort to halt the USD slide. Typically Treasury Secretaries from the political-industrial complex likes a lower currency that helps American exporters and puts pressure on foreigners to open their markets and loosen monetary policy.

Later, the World Bank said that the USD’s real effective exchange rate will decline 5% every year until 2008, based on an assumption of an orderly correction in the U.S. current account deficit.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The market is consolidating within a wide and very choppy range. As suggested last week, the safest way to trade this type of markets is by buying options and trade the delta value against it.

During the past couple of weeks we have seen a consolidation of USD pairs, and we have looked for a deeper correction without getting one (yet), however, the overall longer term picture still supports a weaker USD in the months to come. Thus, this week we prefer to sell USD at rallies, when the currency is trading at the strong end of recent ranges.

Economic releases are more or less insignificant Tuesday with the exception of US Consumer Confidence. Other releases include Swedish Retail Sales, France Unemployment, Canadian Raw Materials Price Index and Industrial Product Price. Thursday is more interesting with US ISM no’s and Friday offers the EU PPI and US Job numbers.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2817 @ 05:59 GMT)
Weekly market update 29-05-2006
EURUSD spent the week in a rather choppy consolidation range where we have been unable to reach the old highs. We need a break of 1.2980 to gain momentum towards 1.3175 74% (from 1.3665-1.1639). Downside is still firm above the 1.2660/90 support, but a break will open for 1.2550. Only a move below this level is concerning for the uptrend.
Tuesday:

The position squaring ahead of the long weekend places us just above the 1.2700 support and the important 1.2660/90 area. So far these areas have held up well in last week’s consolidation. Resistance found at 1.2825/30 and more importantly last week’s high of 1.2885/90. Prefer to play the range and buy EURUSD dips with close stops (1.2660 as last resort), or even better to buy 1 week Call At the Money options and trade the delta against the option.
Resist.
1.2844
1.2794
1.2772
1.2817
1.2722
1.2695
1.2646
Support

Quoted:
30 May 06
05:59 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8682 @ 05:59 GMT)
Weekly market update 29-05-2006
GBPUSD continued the choppy consolidation and finally broke out of the 1.8630 low end of this range. As earlier mentioned only a break of 1.8500 (top from September 2005) would suggest a downside wave, but a test of this level may be well on the way. The upside seems to have found good resistance at 1.9000/25 ahead of our target of 1.9216, the high from April 2005.

Tuesday:
GBPUSD displays slight weakness with break of 1.8630 support and the strength in EURGBP. We may see a test of the 1.8500 swing level this week. Minor support found at 1.8525/35 first. The upside finds resistance at 1.8775. Buy 1 week At the Money options and trade the delta.

Resist.
1.8763
1.8681
1.8639
1.8682
1.8558
1.8518
1.8437
Support

Quoted:
30 May 06
05:59 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (112.00 @ 05:59 GMT)
Weekly market update 29-05-2006
After testing the downside the previous week USDJPY has attempted to break the upside this week. We pushed through the 112.30 gap area opening for 114.00/15 resistance, however, has met formidable resistance at 113.00 lvl in the form of Exporter offers and barrier protection. The key downside area is 108.75/00 lvl. (lows from September 2005). A break above 113 should be bought.

Tuesday:
USDJPY again rejected o/n ahead of the 113 resistance area. Offers evident from 112.80 to 113 (exporters and barrier protection). Support found at 111.45/50 level and below awaits the stronger area of 110.85/95. Two strategies can be explored, sell with stop and reverse just above 113 lvl – or simply buy a break of 113 lvl.

Resist.
113.48
112.96
112.71
112.00
112.19
111.92
111.40
Support

Quoted:
30 May 06
05:59 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

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