Wednesday July 14, 2004 - 21:53:35 GMT
Share This Story
Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI PROFESSIONAL TRADER FOREX SURVEY RECAP
The mid-July GVI Forex Professionalís survey was very interesting as short-term, many continue to exhibit a mildly negative bias for the eur/$ (mean=1.2268) even though that view was wrong two weeks ago. They remained bearish on the $/yen (mean=108.62) for the two weeks ahead. That view was correct on the last time around. We noted also that the forecasts tended to fall into a tighter range around the mean.
As for the forecast for Fed Funds at yearend, the majority of forecasts broke fairly evenly between 1.75% and 2.00%. Expectations for traders about who will win the November Presidential election still strongly favor a Bush win over Kerry by 68-32%. This margin has narrowed from about 72-28% in the previous two polls. Note this is a reading of whom they expect will win, not who they favor.
As for yearend dollar forecasts, the outlook for the eur/$ has continued to improve (latest 1.2384 from 1.2030 a month ago) and a narrowing standard deviation suggest that opinions are less dispersed than they were a month ago. The outlook for the $/yen has worsened also (106.00 last vs. 108.18 a month ago). Opinions in the $/yen seem to be move varied than those in the eur/$.
CLICK FOR TABLE
Note: that this is a sentiment survey, we would rather readers use it as one barometer of how traders are currently thinking and how they may be positioning themselves into the dates in question rather than currency forecasts. As we all know a lot of thing can and likely will change before these outlooks reach fruition.
Thanks again to all those who stick there necks out on this tricky business!
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."