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Friday June 2, 2006 - 05:57:52 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
June had a frosty start, unprecedented June-snowfalls in Europe seem to have a claming effect on currency markets. Tight ranges have held the past 24h, the Euro held the 1.2740 level before rising to 1.2820 on the back of US data that continue to show signs of an economic slowdown: Weekly claims rose to 336k and despite a big downward revision of the peak May 13 week to 344k from 369k, the 4-week average has again climbed and stands at 333.5k. Q1 Unit Labor Costs rose by just 1.6% and Q4 was revised to -0.6% from +3%, US salaries are stagnating. The Home Sales Index dropped a whopping 3.7% in April and stands 11.7% lower than a year ago and finally the ISM Manufacturing PMI shed nearly 3 points to 54.4.
The FED reported an increase of over $7.5Bln in Foreign Central Bank US debt holdings for the week of May 31st, 35% of it in US Treasuries.
German Minister for Economic Michael Glos complained about the ECB’s Monetary policy and hawkish outlook saying that Germany was a victim of uneven price stability within the Euro-zone and that ‘alongside structural reforms Europe needs growth and stability friendly conditions’
BOJ Fukui said that ‘we still have absolutely no predetermined time at which we will move to raise rates from zero’, but also that rates would be raised slowly as it will be too late for a hike ‘when some problem occurs’ in an answer to BOJ board members dovish comments yesterday.
Todays Key Issues:
UK May Production PMI is due at 8.30amGMT, the Index stood at 53.7 last month, no forecast available.
Euroland Producer Prices for April at 9am are thought to increase by a stronger 0.8% (0.4%), making for a yearly gain of 5.3%.
US May Nonfarm payrolls at 12.30GMT are the key data, after the bad Initial Claims they are believed to grow by less than 150k, the unemployment rate last stood at 4.7%.
At 2pm US April Factory orders are expected to drop 2% after a 4% increase in March and Durable Goods Orders for April, reported down 4.8% last week will see a revision.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: 1.2745 – 1.2885 is the narrower, 1.2700 – 1.2920(60) the wider range, not sure what is needed to break out of this, widen this by 100 points to the downside and 50 on top and we may hold this for another month or more, allowing for the 3-month bullish trend-line, presently far below at 1.2350 to catch up and build the base for the next move higher that is widely expected to come one day.
Daily GBPUSD: A look at a longer-term chart shows this consolidation-phase, Cable has been allowed to vividly trade in a slightly more than 3-cent wide, slowly-falling range. Expectations this to continue, the 38% retracement level at 1.8360 should be seen eventually, an accelerated fall is likely to bring the pair to the 1.80/1.81 area at most, here too the forecast is bullish, expect a push towards 2 once the consolidation phase ended.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2960 K ||1.8825 P ||113.85 S ||1.2300 S |
|1.2885 S ||1.8750 S ||113.40 K ||1.2260 K |
|1.2830 M ||1.8695 M ||113.00 S ||1.2240 S |
|1.2820 ||1.8660 ||112.65 ||1.2200 |
|1.2745 S ||1.8620 M ||112.45 M ||1.2185 M |
|1.2700 K ||1.8585 S ||112.15 S ||1.2140 T |
|1.2655 S ||1.8510 S ||111.55 K ||1.2060 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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