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Friday June 2, 2006 - 10:22:29 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 02 2006, 06:02 GMT
Getting ready for the US unemployment data – first important figures after FOMC minutes.
USD remained in ranges on a Thursday which saw more poor US numbers and some decent Eurozone numbers. Asian session was subdued.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• EU unemployment rate out as 8.0% vs. expected 8.1% - this was a surprise.
• EU GDP numbers were in line with expectations.
• PMI numbers across various Europe were slightly better than expected.
• US Initial Unemployment Claims out as vs. 336k vs. 336k expected.
• US Non-farm Productivity (Q1 F) out as 3,7% vs. expected at 3,9%
• US Unit Labor Costs (Q1 F) out as 1,6% vs. expected as 1,8%.
• US Construction Spending M/M (Apr) out as expected at 0.0%.
• US Pending Home Sales M/M (Apr) out as -3.7% vs. expected at -1.0%.
• US ISM Manufacturing (May) out as 54.4 vs. expected at 55.6.
• US ISM Prices Paid (May) out as 77.0 vs. expected at 74.6.

The USD strengthened early but failed to come near the key 1.2700 level as buyers appeared at 1.2725. Later on the heels of disappointing US figures, and comments from ECB noting that considerable downside pressure on the USD is possible, the USD reversed and weakened again. USDCAD saw some profit taking and almost reached 1.1100 before new CAD buyers appeared in force.

The ECB comments were taken from their biannual stability report, discussing global financial imbalances and the medium-term risks to the stability of financial markets. Even though ECB see the likelihood of such an abrupt correction as small, such an event could nevertheless entail sudden and destabilizing changes in global capital flow patterns, and thereby add pressure on the USD.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The USD again bouncing from above the 1.2700 levels leaves us in the middle of this weeks range ahead of the US employment figures today. The FOMC minutes did not bring any clarification as to the next FOMC move, and the market will watch the coming data carefully, especially today’s employment indicators. No change in our stance of the overall longer term picture still supports a weaker USD in the months to come. Friday will likely be a day of narrow ranges ahead of the US numbers.
Friday Economic releases include EU PPI, US Nonfarm Payrolls, US Unemployment, US Factory Orders. No doubt what the important numbers are!

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2814 @ 06:00 GMT)

Weekly market update 29-05-2006
EURUSD spent the week in a rather choppy consolidation range where we have been unable to reach the old highs. We need a break of 1.2980 to gain momentum towards 1.3175 74% (from 1.3665-1.1639). Downside is still firm above the 1.2660/90 support, but a break will open for 1.2550. Only a move below this level is concerning for the uptrend.
Friday:

EURUSD bouncing above the 1.2700 key support and rallied back to 1.2825 before settling in. Sellers are waiting at 1.2850 ahead of this weeks high, the 1.2900/20 resistance area. Prefer to play the recent range of 1.2700 – 1.2900, alternatively buy 1 week at the Money options and trade the spot delta against the option.

Resist.
1.2988
1.2886
1.2845
1.2814
1.2742
1.2681
1.2578
Support

Quoted:
02 Jun 06
06:00 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8656 @ 06:00 GMT)
Weekly market update 29-05-2006
GBPUSD continued the choppy consolidation and finally broke out of the 1.8630 low end of this range. As earlier mentioned only a break of 1.8500 (top from September 2005) would suggest a downside wave, but a test of this level may be well on the way. The upside seems to have found good resistance at 1.9000/25 ahead of our target of 1.9216, the high from April 2005.

Friday:
GBPUSD continued to fall back and now 1.8560 is next support ahead of the 1.8500/30 swing level. The upside finds offers at 1.8700 and minor resistances at 1.8725 and 1.8760. Buy GBPUSD dips with stop blw 1.8500 or buy 1 week At the Money options and trade the delta.

Resist.
1.8975
1.8812
1.8734
1.8656
1.8572
1.8488
1.8325
Support

Quoted:
02 Jun 06
06:00 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (112.73 @ 06:00 GMT)
Weekly market update 29-05-2006
After testing the downside the previous week USDJPY has attempted to break the upside this week. We pushed through the 112.30 gap area opening for 114.00/15 resistance, however, has met formidable resistance at 113.00 lvl in the form of Exporter offers and barrier protection. The key downside area is 108.75/00 lvl. (lows from September 2005). A break above 113 should be bought.

Friday:
USDJPY has broken above the 113.00 resistance – finally – but new sellers appeared at 113.30/50 area preventing a serious follow through. USD weakened from there now hovering above demand at 112.40 lvl. 111.50 is good support. Await developments.

Resist.
114.83
113.82
113.26
112.73
112.25
111.80
110.79
Support

Quoted:
02 Jun 06
06:00 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
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00:30 AU- Employment
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
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All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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