User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday June 2, 2006 - 20:56:15 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Euro to Run the Show Next Week With ECB Meeting

DailyFX Fundamentals 06-02-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

- Euro to Run the Show Next Week With ECB Meeting
- Fed Rate Hike Expectations Pared Significantly After Poor NFP
- Strong Yen Reduces Chances of BoJ Rate Hike

US Dollar

If the G7 meeting can be characterized as the main catalyst for the major sell-off in the US dollar between April and May, then non-farm payrolls will probably go down as the main culprit of the dollar’s weakness in June. This morning, we learned that job growth in the US economy last month was extremely weak. Falling short of even the most pessimistic analyst’s expectations, US companies added only 75k jobs last month, compared to an extremely lofty forecast of 170k. However the bigger issue is not just how disappointing the payrolls number was, but its potential impact on the US economy going forward. Consumer confidence tends to have a very strong correlation with non-farm payrolls and given the big downtick in payroll growth last month, it would be surprising if confidence did not fall. Weaker confidence usually means weaker spending as consumers worry about future earnings. Ultimately this means that the Federal Reserve will have to rethink raising interest rates in June. Fed rate hike expectations have now fallen below 50 percent, indicating that over half of the market thinks that the Fed will pause in June. To illustrate how bad the payrolls number was, it was the weakest since October 2005 and according to Barry Ritholtz, less than half of the monthly population growth. In addition, of those people who do have jobs, they are working fewer hours in May and their earnings growth was near flat. The unemployment rate did tick lower from 4.7 percent to 4.6 percent, but it is widely known that the household survey which publishes the unemployment rate tends to have a larger sampling error than the payroll report. No matter which way you slice it, this is a bad number and it is negative for the US dollar. There is no doubt that the US economy is weakening and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. All the market needs to see from now till the rate decision at the end of the month is the consumer price index on June 14th. Inflation pressures have been their solitary reason for remaining hawkish so if the CPI number shows slower growth, it could slam the door on another rate interest hike. Next week, the economic calendar is relatively light with only the service sector ISM report and the trade balance worth watching. However on Monday afternoon, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, ECB President Trichet and Bank of Japan Muto will all be speaking at a monetary conference in Washington. At this critical juncture in Fed policy, the comments by the three major central bank officials will be particularly important and could potentially cause more volatility for the market in the week ahead.

Euro

The weaker US non-farm payrolls report has helped the Euro rally significantly today but unfortunately the strength of the rally was not large enough for the move to mark a meaningful break of the pair’s recent consolidation. Prices are stalling at the same highs that the pair topped out at on May 12 and 15. Nonetheless, the move still looks constructive and 1.30 remains the path of least resistance both fundamentally and technically. Stronger inflation numbers this morning continues to fuel the debate of whether the European Central bank will be raising rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Producer prices increased 0.8 percent in April with the pace of growth in March also upwardly revised from 0.4 percent to 0.5 percent. This past week, the market’s primary focus was on the US, but in the upcoming week, Europe will run the show. The US economic calendar is light while the Eurozone economic calendar in comparison is jam packed with important economic data. Not only are we expecting a key central bank rate decision where the market is divided on the potential outcome, but we are also anticipating retail sales, industrial production, service sector PMI reports and trade figures from many important countries within the Eurozone. The ECB rate decision should not be underestimated because even if the ECB only delivers a quarter point rate hike, if they hint that more is to come, the Euro could continue to rally as the market anticipates continued tightening by the central bank which is positive since it comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of their tightening cycle.

British Pound

Riding on the coattails of broad dollar weakness, the British pound has performed strongly against the US dollar today. However against the Euro it struggled to recuperate earlier losses. The construction sector has been performing well in the Eurozone but in the UK, activity fell from 53.7 to 52.7, which was more than the market initially anticipated. The previous strength in UK economic data is coming more into question which makes next week’s BRC retail sales, industrial production and trade balance reports even more important. The Bank of England will also be holding a monetary policy meeting next week. They are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50 percent and when they fail to make any changes, they also do not make any statement. Therefore, it should be a non-event.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen ended the day stronger against the US dollar, but unchanged against most other currencies. The only piece of data released overnight was money supply, which saw the biggest drop since 1971. This confirms the Bank of Japan’s continual removal of liquidity from the market as a part of their process of ending quantitative easing. There is barely any data on the Japanese economic calendar next week which means that the yen will probably leave its short term fluctuations to the other majors. Deflation still persists, suggesting that any interest rate hikes will not come until the fourth quarter at the earliest. Also, with the yen so strong against the dollar, the BoJ will probably be even more cautious in fear of causing a shock to their export dependent economy.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105