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Monday June 5, 2006 - 09:45:35 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 05 2006, 05:59 GMT
USD remains weak in Asia after Friday's US Nonfarm!
Rather quiet Asian session, but the spill-over effect from Friday's US data seems significant ahead of the European opening with not much supporting the dollar.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Change in US NonFarm payrolls May, out at 75k vs. 170k expected.
• US unemployment Rate May, out at 4.6% vs. 4.7% expected.
• US Average hourly earnings (MoM) May, out at 0.1% vs. 0.35 expected.
• US Factory Orders April, out at -1.8% vs. -2.1% expected.
• The Fed's Moskow said he expects to see inflation contained.
• Aig performance of service index May, out at 49.3 vs. a prior reading 56.3.
• Australian TD Securities Inflation (MoM) May, out at 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected.
• ANZ Job Advertisements May, out at 7.7% vs. -5.0% expected.
• Australian Company operation Profit (QoQ%) Q1, out at 0.1% vs 2.5% expected.
• Japan's Capital Spending Q1, out at 13.6% vs. 7.0% expected.
• Japan's Capital Spending incl. Software Q1, out at 13.9% vs. 7.5% expected.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
With most European markets closed today and a rather data less day in Europe we expect the ranges to be rather tight. Today’s focus is on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing for May. We saw Friday’s disappointing payroll numbers and a reading below the expected 60 for the ISM should take EURUSD out of the last weeks consolidation pattern. A break of 1.2980 should open up for a 1.3100+ target for the remainder of the week.

Also favoring the EURUSD upside break is speculation that the ECB’s Trichet will today signal interest rates will rise while Fed’s Chairman Bernanke will suggest a pause for U.S. borrowing costs. The two will speak today at the American Bankers Association in Washington.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2945 @ 05:05 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: EURUSD remains congested after last week’s sideways consolidation pattern. But the strong close Friday gives reason to believe that a retest of 1.2980 resistance, is in the making. We look for a break of the mentioned level this week to confirm the bullish bias and suggest a target of 1.3175 further out. For the downside only a break of the 1.2660-1.2685 support area would give reason for a more meaningful downside correction.

Monday: Still caught in the consolidation range of 1.2980-1.2685, but we favor the bullish bias with the pairs strong Friday close. look to buy dips or place an order to buy the break of 1.2980 for a 1.3050 target in today's session. look for the pair to be supported in the 1.2880-1.2915 area.
Resist.
1.3157
1.3014
1.2947
1.2945
1.2805
1.2729
1.2587
Support

Quoted:
05 Jun 06
05:05 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8844 @ 05:05 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: GBPUSD recovered Friday on the weaker dollar to make a strong close, but remains in a tight congested range. For the upcoming week we look for a break of 1.8885 which would give scope for a test of 1.9216, the top from April 2005. For the downside the pair remains well supported in the 1.8500-1.8530 area, which needs to break if a deeper downside correction is to be seen.

Monday: GBPUSD looks to be in a upside breakout mode after Friday's weaker dollar. Expect a break of 1.8870 to spark renewed buying interest to challenge the high from May at 1.9025. Intra day support is in the 1.8770-00 area.

Resist.
1.9239
1.8988
1.8865
1.8844
1.8614
1.8487
1.8237
Support

Quoted:
05 Jun 06
05:05 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (111.55 @ 05:05 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: USDJPY fell short of testing 113.40 resistance, where a break would open up to challenge 115.50.But we look for 113.40 to cap the upside for the upcoming trading week supported by daily stochastics pointing lower. Look for a break of 111.00 this week to accelerate the downside for a test of longer term wave support at 108.75, the low from September 2005.

Monday: USDJPY consolidating in Asia after Friday's massive drop and we expect the downside to continue. Sell rallies towards 112.30 or look to place sell stop orders just below 111.00 for a 110.30 short term target.

Resist.
115.29
113.68
112.80
111.55
111.19
110.45
108.84
Support

Quoted:
05 Jun 06
05:05 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

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