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Wednesday June 7, 2006 - 08:51:03 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Euro holds its range ahead of the ECB meeting
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
EURUSD returned near the lower end of its trading range, after the 1.2885 support gave way early on. So far a low of 1.2790 was reached, 2-month bullish trend-line intersects here, holding this level today is important for traders with a view that the pair is just waiting for the ECB rate hike tomorrow to move through 1.30. Cable underperformed as it fell through its support at 1.8640, dropping through slow-rising 2-week trend-line. The Dollar was also well bid against the Yen, 113.40 was tested a first time on the back of Bernankeâ€™s hawkish and Mutoâ€™s dovish comments the night before. No news yesterday nor overnight, the Bank of Englands MPC meeting and especially the ECB rate announcement tomorrow overshadow financial markets this week.
Todays Key Issues:
Euroland April Retail Sales at 9amGMT ought to increase by 1%, reversing the prior months dip of 0.8%. YoY growth stands at 2.2%. German April Factory Orders are believed to grow by 1%, keeping YoY growth above a staggering 10%. Several FED officials are due to speak this afternoon, it will be interesting to see whether they will follow Bernankes effort of adding a more hawkish tone. US April Consumer Credit are due at 7pmGMT, they are expected to increase by at least $1Bln to $3.5Bln outstanding dept.
The Risk Today:
1-H EURUSD: The pair is going nowhere, range-trading within 1.2730 â€“ 1.2960 continues. A first strong support at 1.2790ish has held well this morning, currently we retrace and expect to top at 1.2840. Additional resistance 1.2885 and key 1.2960. To the downside a breech at 1.2790 has space for 1.2730 key support.
Daily USDJPY: 113.40 was tested a first time yesterday and again this morning. On the daily charts we seem to develop a bullish trend, support at 112.20 today, a close above the still key 113.40 level will open the path towards 114.85/115.10. Minor support at 113.10 today, more at 112.60, look to buy dips, next short-term rise should yield 113.85.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2960 K ||1.8775 S ||114.25 M ||1.2300 M |
|1.2885 S ||1.8700 M ||113.85 S ||1.2260 K |
|1.2845 T ||1.8640 P ||113.45 K ||1.2240 S |
|1.2800 ||1.8580 ||113.45 ||1.2190 |
|1.2790 T ||1.8570 M ||113.10 M ||1.2185 S |
|1.2735 K ||1.8530 S ||112.40 S ||1.2140 M |
|1.2660 S ||1.8450 S ||111.55 K ||1.2040 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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