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Wednesday June 7, 2006 - 10:16:11 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 07 2006, 06:13 GMT
USD/Majors staying in ranges despite dollar strength!
The Fed's Poole commented that Fed needs an upside bias on rates and send EURUSD for a test of 1.2800. Also Fed's Bies and Hoenig was hawkish overnight.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Canadian Buílding Permits (MoM) April, out at -10.6% vs. -2.9% expectd.
• Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index May, out at 75 vs. 58 expected.
• ANZ Commodity Price May, out at 2.3% vs. 1.6% expected.
• US ABC Consumer Confidence June 5, out at -17 as expected.
• Australian RBA Cash Target June, left rate unchanged at 5.75% as expected.
• Australian GBP (QoQ) Q1, out at 0.9% vs. 0.8% expected.
• Japan's Official reserve Assests May, out at $864.1b vs. 860.2B expected.
• Japan's Leading Economic Index April, out at 50.0% which is line with the forecast.
• Japan's Coincident Index April, out at 77.8% vs. 66.7% expected.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The JPY was the big loser yesterday all around with USDJPY and EURJPY being the main driver. NKS BOJ watch column in Asia last night said that BOJ wants to strike a balance between normalizing interest rates and keeping market conditions stable. But that fact is that BOJ has showed no sign on giving any direction on monetary policy and the move away from the zero rate policy seems to the be what the market is waiting far to finally see longer term JPY strength. Or we may have to wait to see whether the Fed after the June likely rate hike will give clear direction on their rate outlook for the next quarter and a dovish tone before summer could be the spark for USDJPY to once again resume the longer term downtrend. But for now we remain with the medium term bearish view as long as 115.50 resistance remain intact.

From yesterday:
The speculation that the Fed’s Chairman Bernanke would suggest a pause for U.S borrowing costs left the market caught on the wrong foot. EURUSD tumbled almost a figure following the speech to the bankers Association in Washington.

Bernanke commented that he was concerned on core inflation and that it could break the upper end of the range. This left the market unsure if the Fed will raise rates for the 17th straight time to 5.25%. There is PMI services out from several European countries, but lacking US data which leaves the market with not a lot of new data to go by.

So we will change our present intra week dollar stand from bearish to neutral as long as 1.2685 remains intact and we look for EURUSD to trade above 1.2980 to spark renewed dollar weakness.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2811 @ 06:12 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: EURUSD remains congested after last week’s sideways consolidation pattern. But the strong close Friday gives reason to believe that a retest of 1.2980 resistance, is in the making. We look for a break of the mentioned level this week to confirm the bullish bias and suggest a target of 1.3175 further out. For the downside only a break of the 1.2660-1.2685 support area would give reason for a more meaningful downside correction.

Wednesday: USD continues strengthen, but the pair remains still within the consolidation zone of 1.2685-1.2980. For today look to buy the dips towards 1.2900 as long as 1.2800 remains intact. For the downside look for a stop reversal below 1.2800 to test 1.2685-1.2720 to bottom of the consolidation zone.

Resist.
1.3110
1.2984
1.2908
1.2811
1.2783
1.2733
1.2608
Support

Quoted:
07 Jun 06
06:12 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8601 @ 06:12 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: GBPUSD recovered Friday on the weaker dollar to make a strong close, but remains in a tight congested range. For the upcoming week we look for a break of 1.8885 which would give scope for a test of 1.9216, the top from April 2005. For the downside the pair remains well supported in the 1.8500-1.8530 area, which needs to break if a deeper downside correction is to be seen.

Wednesday: GBPUSD sold off heavily yesterday on USD strength. But as EURUSD we still remain in a consolidation zone in the 1.8500-1.8870 area. For today we look to buy the dips as long as 1.8530 remains intact and look to stop reverse if 1.8500 support goes for a 1.8350 target.

Resist.
1.9021
1.8838
1.8720
1.8601
1.8537
1.8472
1.8289
Support

Quoted:
07 Jun 06
06:12 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (113.33 @ 06:12 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: USDJPY fell short of testing 113.40 resistance, where a break would open up to challenge 115.50.But we look for 113.40 to cap the upside for the upcoming trading week supported by daily stochastics pointing lower. Look for a break of 111.00 this week to accelerate the downside for a test of longer term wave support at 108.75, the low from September 2005.

Wednesday: USDJPY found once again renewed strength yesterday, but was unable to close above 113.40 resistance. For the upside look for hourly closes above the mentioned resistance for a test of 115.50 where we will likely find medium term selling interest. For the downside we need to see a break of 111.30 to confirm a deeper downside acceleration.

Resist.
115.99
114.48
113.90
113.33
112.39
111.47
109.97
Support

Quoted:
07 Jun 06
06:12 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

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