Wednesday June 7, 2006 - 14:42:32 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Monthly Forex Poll
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar against the euro remained negative. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.2919 from 1.2696 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (June 5 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2920.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) turned less positive the EUR/USD to 53 from 58 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned lower to 110.92 from 112.01 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 112.08. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was virtually unchanged. It was 33 after 36.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $71.08 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $71.50 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked if they felt the U.S. Federal Funds rate would be raised by +25bps on June 29. 58% said yes, while 42% said no.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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