Thursday June 8, 2006 - 07:40:22 GMT
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Daily Technicals: Euro at buy levels ahead of ECB rate hike
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: It dipped to 1.2760 and holding in a tight range around 1.2790 since. Key support has moved a tad higher to 1.2740, intra-day we could stretch the low to 1.2695, any lower signifies a bearish break and we could reach 1.2590 by Friday. Much likelier is to hold here and continue trading side-ways, on top initial resistance at 1.2815 is only minor, space to move back to 1.2885 strong resistance or 1.2960 key, higher levels could be seen on the back of a strong rate hike by the ECB today.
GBPUSD: Cable rise yesterday was stopped at 1.8640 from where the Pound fell to a 1.8500 low this morning. There is good support right around 1.8500, a breech risks to extend this short-term move to 1.8460 or 1.8410 max. today. To the upside, bypassing 1.8530 can quickly see a return to above 1.86, pivot resistance at 1.8650, a higher daily close is bullish for 1.8885.
USDJPY: It spent most of the day around the 113.40 key, closed the day right there and moved on to the 113.85 resistance this morning, this level should be fairly tough to break. Short-term bullish support at 113.55, while above the dollar can rise up to 114.65 today, minor resistance at 114.20, next strong resistance 115.10. A break to the downside is confirmed by an hourly close underneath of 113.40, in which case we expect to fall to at least 112.85, 112.30 is likely.
USDCHF: It rose, but again no more than the strong level at 1.2240/60. Currently at 1.2230, we may spike to 1.2290 in the very short-term, more call for a medium-term movement towards 1.2550. For now I suggest selling Dollars between here and 1.23, expect to reverse to 1.2190, first strong support, from where there is room to tank to the base at 1.2020 in case the day turns to be volatile.
@10:30GMT UK Industrial / Manufacturing Production April
@11:00GMT BOE rate announcement
@11:45GMT ECB rate announcement
@12:30GMT US Weekly Jobless Claims
@14:00GMT US Wholesale Inventories April
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