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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 09 2006, 05:47 GMT
Asian session did nothing after the dollar bull run following ECB's Trichet comments on further rate hikes!
The ECB was unable to up its hawkish tone after raising rates 25 bps to 2.75% and the market with Bernanke's statement in mind send EURUSD below key support at 1.2685

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Canadian Housing Starts May, out at 216.8K vs. 221.0K expected.
• Canadian New Housing Price Index (MoM) April, out at 1.2% vs. 0.5% expected.
• Canadian labor Productivity (QoQ) Q1, out at 0.5% vs 0.4% expected.
• US Initial Jobless Claims June 3, out at 302K vs. 330K expected.
• US Continuing Claims May 27, out at 2415K vs. 2425K expected.
• US Wholesale Inventories April, out at 0.9% vs. 0.5% expected.
• Japan's Machine Orders (MoM) April, out at 10.8% vs. 3.5% expected.
• Japan:The government still says that Japan suffers from deflation, but improvement is seen, according to a draft of the government monthly economic report on Reuters. One of these days, the government will declare deflation over, which would be JPY-bullish.
• CHINA: M2 grew 19% y/y in May, well above the 16% central bank target for 2006. This is one major domestic pressure point for China to reduce intervention and allow the currency to appreciate.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The speculation that the Fed’s Chairman Bernanke would suggest a pause for U.S borrowing costs left the market caught on the wrong foot. EURUSD tumbled almost a figure following the speech to the bankers Association in Washington earlier in the week. Yesterday the present EURUSD downtrend was confirmed by the ECB not giving the market enough of the hawkish tone after the expected rate hike. We may see, looking a few weeks ahead seeing more dollar strength as the market’s key event before the summer is the expected hike by the Fed and the following statement which will set the pace looking a few months ahead concerning the rate outlook.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.


Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2644 @ 05:47 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: EURUSD remains congested after last week’s sideways consolidation pattern. But the strong close Friday gives reason to believe that a retest of 1.2980 resistance, is in the making. We look for a break of the mentioned level this week to confirm the bullish bias and suggest a target of 1.3175 further out. For the downside only a break of the 1.2660-1.2685 support area would give reason for a more meaningful downside correction.

Friday: USD continues strengthen, and the pair left the consolidation zone of 1.2685-1.2980 after the ECB statement. Look to sell on rallies for a test of 1.2590 support, old top from September 2005 and possibly 1.2540 38% 1.2879-11820). look for the 1.2980-1.2700 area to provide good intra day resistance.

Resist.
1.3060
1.2878
1.2764
1.2644
1.2582
1.2513
1.2330
Support

Quoted:
09 Jun 06
05:47 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8431 @ 05:47 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: GBPUSD recovered Friday on the weaker dollar to make a strong close, but remains in a tight congested range. For the upcoming week we look for a break of 1.8885 which would give scope for a test of 1.9216, the top from April 2005. For the downside the pair remains well supported in the 1.8500-1.8530 area, which needs to break if a deeper downside correction is to be seen.

Friday: GBPUSD broke key levels yesterday taking out both 1.8530 and 1.8500 support sending the pair to a low of 1.8370. The break of 1.8500 gives scope for a short term target of 1.8335. For today sell yesterday's low or rallies towards 1.8500.


Resist.
1.8875
1.8666
1.8544
1.8431
1.8335
1.8248
1.8039
Support

Quoted:
09 Jun 06
05:47 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (113.89 @ 05:47 GMT)
Weekly update 04-06-2006: USDJPY fell short of testing 113.40 resistance, where a break would open up to challenge 115.50.But we look for 113.40 to cap the upside for the upcoming trading week supported by daily stochastics pointing lower. Look for a break of 111.00 this week to accelerate the downside for a test of longer term wave support at 108.75, the low from September 2005.

Friday: USDJPY broke 114.20 resistance with JPY weakness and but was unable to finish strong. But we still remain a buyer on dips as long as 112.30 support remains intact for test of 115.50 resistance where we expect more selling interest by medium term sellers.

Resist.
116.84
115.47
114.84
113.89
113.47
112.73
111.36
Support

Quoted:
09 Jun 06
05:47 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

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Saxo Bank

 

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