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Monday June 12, 2006 - 08:46:22 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Euro ends week with a key-reversal
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Friday remained fairly range-bound, the Dollar could not really cash in on better then expected Trade Balance, but it remained at fairly high levels against all the major currencies.
The EURUSD extended its weekly low to 1.2600 and maintained its 1-week bearish trend with resistance at 1.2660 this morning. Looking at a weekly chart, we notice a bearish key-reversal: Last week has seen a higher high, a lower low and a close beyond the priorâ€™s week low. This is bearish, the Euro must trade lower this week, meaning that next Fridays close will be lower than this mornings opening of 1.2630.
G8 Finance Ministers met in St.Petersburg this weekend. It was a non-event for foreign exchange traders. The Finance Ministers discussed rising energy prices and its impact on the global economy, which is expected to show solid growth.
Todays Key Issues:
UK May PPI data is due shortly, PPI Input is believed to increase by 2% (2.5% in April), PPI Output is up 0.4% (0.6%).
FED Pianalto and Olson will be holding separate speeches this afternoon, the FED is believed to hike rates by 25bp later this month.
US May Federal Budget at 6pmGMT should show an increasing deficit of $40Bln after a $35.4Bln deficit in April.
The Risk Today:
1-H and weekly EURUSD: The Euro is under pressure today, 1-week bearish trend remains intact, the trend-line has fallen to 1.260 this morning, expect to stretch the low into the high 1.25â€™ handle today. A look at the long-term chart shows that after forming a significant top above 1.29, last week has seen a rise to a new high, followed by the lowest close in weeks, this is a key-reversal. It is a clear sign that this week will be bearish, meaning we will close next Friday at a level lower than todayâ€™s opening of 1.2630. Target of the current bearish move is 1.25, the long-term rising trend-line.
Resistance and Support:
|1.8485 T |
|1.8350 K |
|113.40 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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