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Monday June 12, 2006 - 10:54:12 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• Market uncertainty remains high - this week’s US inflation data will be significant.
• Short-term downside risk on EUR-USD.
• Japanese CGPI prices inflation at 25-yr high.

Market Outlook

Not much has happened overnight, with EUR-USD perched above short-term support at 1.2590-1.2600 but still below the previous range support area running from 1.2685-1.2725. As long as it stays below that area there is some downside risk back towards the 1.2350-1.2500 area.

Overall, market uncertainty about a number of issues, largely relating to inflation and interest rates, will remain in place in the short-term and there are events this week with the potential to strongly influence sentiment on these matters. US inflation data (PPI Tuesday, CPI Wednesday) will be key in this regard and most will take a cautious approach until this data is seen. There is a chance if more EUR-USD long position liquidation ahead of those releases. IMM data showed that as of last Tuesday net longs for spec accounts advanced to a new record of 88,196 contracts, up 3,080 from the previous week. Of course, EURUSD was still just above 1.28 back then and this positioning is likely to have since fallen given the price action that has been seen. However, it is still likely to be fairly large.

Inflation is also showing in Japan, with the domestic corporate goods price index y/y rate rising to a 25-yr high (+3.3%). On the basis of what can be seen in the sub-components, this is primarily due to energy and metals prices (there is no core rate) so the market will probably want to wait and see until this filters through to CPI becoming overly excited. This week’s BoJ meeting is unlikely to reveal anything new.

Day Ahead
UK – PPI data (especially core PPI output) will be closely watched given the heightened focus on inflation numbers at the present time, as well as the fact that this particular core y/y measure has been edging up in recent months (it was +2.3% last month).

US – Pianalto is the only Fed speaker formally scheduled to talk about issues considered sensitive for monetary policy and a reiteration of the inflation concerns offered by other Fed
speakers seems the most likely outcome. Bernanke is due to talk later on about banking supervision and he will take questions afterwards, so there is an outside chance of some comments about inflation or the economy.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

Market Holiday - Australia
SE Unemployment rate (May) 09.00 4.5%
IT Ind prod (Apr) m/m 09.00 +0.7%
GB PPI input (May) m/m 09.30 +0.2%
GB PPI output (May, nsa) m/m 09.30 +0.2%
GB PPI output core (May) y/y 09.30 +2.4%
GB ODPM house prices (Apr) y/y 09.30 +4.4%
CA Capacity utilisation (Q1) 13.30 86.4%
US Fed’s Pianalto speaks on economy and policy 14.15
US Fed’s Olson speaks 16.30
US Federal Budget (May) 19.00 -$36.6bn
NZ Retail trade (Apr) m/m 23.45 +0.5%
US Fed’s Bernanke speaks 00.30
AU NAB business survey (May) 02.30 +12 last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP GDP (Q1 2nd est) q/q +0.8% +0.8%
JP Domestic CGPI (May) y/y +3.3% +2.8%
JP Current account (Apr, sa) ¥1.1trn ¥1.55trn
CN CPI (May) y/y +1.4% +1.3%
JP Consumer confidence (May) 49.9 50.6
DE WPI (May) y/y +5.0% +3.2% last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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