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Monday June 12, 2006 - 13:09:54 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 12 2006, 05:45 GMT

US inflation data later this week to determine whether interest rate theme will continue to support the USD. BoJ press conference up Thursday.

Monster Canadian Employment Report pushes the loonie stronger across the board. There may be more CAD strength on the horizon.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
Friday's Data Highlights:
• France Industrial Production fell -1.4% vs. +0.2% expected
• Sweden Industrial Production / Orders out at 1.6% and 8.1% for April
• Norway CPI was out at 0.1% for May, vs. 0.2% expected. Norway PPI out at -3.2% vs. -1.8% exp.
• UK Visible Trade Balance for April out at -£5750 vs. -£5800 exp. For Non-EU, the Trade Balance was -£3373 vs. -£2800 exp.
• Germany Industrial Production for April out at 1.6% vs. 2.0% expected
• Canada Unemployment Rate for May out at 6.1% vs. 6.4% expected. The Net Change in Employment for May out at 96.7k s. 20.0K exp.
• US Trade Balance for April out at -$63.4B vs. -$65.0B expected
• Canada International Trade for April out at C$4.1B vs. C$5.5 expected
• US Import Price Index for May out at 1.6% vs. 0.7% expected
Monday data from Asia:
• Japan Final GDP revision for Q1 was 3.1% annualized vs. 3.2% expected (and the original estimate of 1.9%)
• Japan Domestic CGPI for May rose 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected
• Japan Export Price Index for May fell -1.6% and Import Price Index fell -0.2%
• Japan Current Account Total for Apr. out at ¥1282B vs. ¥1757 exp. and on an adjusted basis at ¥1136B v. ¥1550B exp.
• China's Exports grew 25.1% YoY vs 24.2% expected and Imports rose 21.7% vs. 21.2% exp.
• China Trade Balance for May out at $13.0 B vs. $12.0B exp.
• China Consumer Price Index for May out at 1.4% vs. 1.3% expected.


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Last week we saw the "interest rate differential" theme taking charge once again, as Bernanke's hawkish comments from the previous Friday colluded with a dovish ECB on Thursday to finally push EURUSD through 1.2700 support. There may be enough fuel there this week to keep EURUSD and USDJPY on a corrective path, especially if US inflation data later this week (PPI tomorrow and CPI on Wed.) comes in higher than expected. But we still look on this as a corrective USD rally within a larger weak USD trend. Eventually, the global imbalances theme may reassert and smack the USD for further losses.

Elsewhere, the release of the highest CGPI increase overnight from Japan in 25 years was met with a collective yawn as interest rate futures failed to react to this development. The market has recently slowly been unwinding its forward expectations of the degree to which the BoJ will hike, so there is little support for JPY from an interest rate perspective. Also, the much smaller than expected Current Account surplus weighed on the JPY. Technically, it's hard to find a reason to buy the JPY unless the 143.60 area in EURJPY or the 113.00 area in USDJPY gives way. The BoJ press conference on Thursday may be crucial for getting a clearer message on the BoJ's intentions and could see the JPY committing one way or the other.

Elsewhere, the AUD unit is surprisingly strong considering its oft-cited correlation with metals prices, which have simply fallen off a cliff lately - a simple mispricing, or a sign of more AUD strength to come?

CAD strength certainly seems justified with the sharp rally in crude on Friday and a massive employment report that saw a whopping 0.3% chopped off the unemployment rate. The Europeans look vulnerable again vs. CAD, even if this trade is a bit overextended for the short term.


Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2632 @ 05:14 GMT)
EURUSD corrected lower last week, and 1.2700 is the important ceiling for now as this correction may bite lower toward at least the 1.2550 area. 1.2400 (a 50% correction of the move from the 1.1860 base) is even a possibility on extremely high inflation data from the US this week. A pull back above 1.2700 is needed for the bulls to regroup and focus higher again.
Resist.
1.2821
1.2730
1.2684
1.2632
1.2593
1.2549
1.2458
Support

Quoted:
12 Jun 06
05:14 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8423 @ 05:21 GMT)
GBP/USD has completed a correction to the "ideal" first Fibo level at around 1.8370 as we look for the turnaround higher again. There's still plenty of room for further correction lower, however, as the recent rally took us very far very fast (the halfway point of the rally is all the way down at 1.8140). For now, the 1.8530 area is the important resistance level that forces us to remain in bearish mode unless we see a very strong bounce from attempts lower later this week.

Resist.
1.8657
1.8537
1.8470
1.8423
1.8350
1.8298
1.8179
Support

Quoted:
12 Jun 06
05:21 GMT

US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (114.07 @ 05:27 GMT)
USD/JPY continues to defy gravity as the renewed speculation of a tightening Fed and fading hopes for a hawkish BoJ are conniving to pull USD/JPY higher. This will be a critical week for the JPY, as we eventually prefer for it to pull stronger against the broader market. 115.00 is a big psychological level for USD/JPY while 113.00 is the key swing level to the downside.

Resist.
115.56
114.76
114.36
114.07
113.56
113.16
112.36
Support

Quoted:
12 Jun 06
05:27 GMT

Risk warning
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