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Monday June 12, 2006 - 21:11:22 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: Quiet day ahead of retail sales
The NZD lacked direction on Monday in a session that saw the currency restricted to a 0.6315 – 0.6337 range. A power blackout in Auckland and a public holiday in Australia dampened trading volumes and the market showed little reaction to slightly stronger than expected Terms of Trade data. Overnight the NZD dipped below 0.6300 as the USD strengthened and the AUD/NZD cross found support around the 1.1800 level. This morning the NZD opens on its lows around 0.6286 with the focus firmly on April retail trade data out at 10.45am.

Australian Dollar: Public holiday becalms AUD
A public holiday in Australia saw the AUD becalmed in thin trade with the currency pair in a holding pattern of 0.7473 – 0.7491 for the better part of the day. Overnight an initial push to the 0.7500 level was quickly broken as the USD rallied and as a result the AUD tumbled to a session low 0.7456. It opens slightly higher this morning.

Major Currencies: USD holds ground despite budget deficit
The major currencies were granted somewhat of a reprieve on Monday but failed to capitalise on a larger than expected US budget deficit. In more Fedspeak, presidents from Dallas and Cleveland reiterated recent rhetoric about inflation vigilance. The markets largely ignored the Fedspeak as it was more of the same but the overall message from the Fed has been hawkish, hence mitigating any damage from the budget statement. Sterling remained in a similar range as Friday but the bias was slightly more bullish as GBP rallied off the 1.8381 support level to 1.8470 and opens Tuesday at 1.8445. The euro continued lower on Monday drifting off the high at 1.2652 down to 1.2565 before recovering to 1.2600 at the close. The USD continued its strength against the Japanese yen yesterday and rallied slowly but steadily higher throughout. Support for USD/JPY is seen at 114.00 and the rally took the pair to 114.57 overnight.

Japanese Q1 GDP revised up. GDP was revised to an annualised 3.1%, from the 1.9% initially reported, aided by anticipated upward revisions to capital spending.

Japanese consumer confidence down. In contrast, sentiment slipped to 49.8 from 50.2 (which was the first 50 read since 1990).

Fedspeak: Sandra Pianalto, of the Cleveland Fed (and an FOMC voter this year), added her voice to the recent chorus of Fed officials expressing concern that inflation “exceeds my comfort level... [it] troubles me”. Fed chair Ben Bernanke is due to speak later this morning, at 930am Sydney time. The topic is banking supervision, but a Q&A is expected, so the current economy and policy issues may be discussed.

Canadian capacity use 85.9% in Q1. That is high enough to remain of concern to the Bank of Canada, although there are signs that C$ strength and weaker US demand may be taking pressure of capacity in some sectors.

Italian industrial production fell 1.0% in April, its third decline in the four months of this year so far.

German wholesale price inflation accelerated to 5.0% yr in May.

UK producer prices were softer than expected on the input side at 13.8% yr, while core output prices accelerated to 2.4% yr.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
NZ Apr Retail Trade –1.0% 0.4%
Aust May NAB Business Survey 12 n/f
US May PPI/Core 0.9%/0.1% 0.6%/0.1%
May Retail Sales 0.5%/0.7% –0.2%/flat
Apr Business Inventories 0.7% 0.8%
Jpn Apr Capacity Utilisation – Level 104.1 105.8
Eur Q1 Current Account €bn –15.1 –8.0
Ger Jun ZEW Survey 50.0 45.0
UK May CPI %yr 2.0% 2.2%

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Q1 Terms of Trade Review (12 June)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (12 June)
• NZ June RBNZ MPS Review (8 June)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (6 June)
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (6 June)
• NZ June RBNZ MPS Preview (2 June)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (29 May)
• A changed reaction function? (23 May)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
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Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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Fri 14 Sep 2018
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