User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday June 13, 2006 - 10:35:26 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Global markets show further signs of strain – USD steady.
• US inflation fears remain paramount ahead of this week’s key data (US PPI today, US CPI tomorrow).
• Eurozone ZEW soft, UK CPI mixed.
• US retail sales report also features today.

Market Outlook

Yesterday afternoon’s US equity market sell-off has prompted a resurfacing of anxieties in global markets. Asian and European equity indices have weakened further overnight (Nikkei daily drop of 4.14% is the biggest since May 2004), while almost all emerging currencies are softer. Nervousness ahead of this week’s US data is the main factor, with PPI and retail sales due today and CPI tomorrow. The inflation data will be key as strong or weak showings will have a big influence on sentiment about Fed interest rate risk as well as global investor risk appetite in general.

As mentioned throughout the past month or so, such adversity in global markets, especially if it is caused by higher US rate fears, is USD supportive from several angles. First of all, a general rejigging of investor portfolios out of the trades seen over the past two years should see a net flow back into the USD investor base, as the trend during the past couple of years, at least in terms of equity markets, has been into non-US markets. Second, there is a basic risk appetite issue and a lowering of risk appetite can only negatively affect the positioning of short term accounts, which have recently been short USDs, although some of this has been reined in already after the price action of the past week. Third, is the basic argument about higher US interest rates, although this could have limited mileage. Rate rises because of inflation rather than growth factors are typically negative for a currency, as ultimately the growth outlook is endangered.

Today’s PPI and retail sales data will provide some inclination about where we go from here, although markets will most likely reserve judgement until tomorrow’s core CPI is seen. In the meantime, the USD is likely to retain support, even though medium-term vulnerabilities remain in place.

Data highlights in Europe today included a stronger than expected CPI number in the UK, with the rise in the y/y rate to +2.2% from +2.0% being solely driven by a sharp rise in household electricity and natural gas charges. The core y/y rate fell to +1.1% from +1.3%. Immediately after the release, GBP strengthened and rate expectations hardened but these moves were eventually taken back. In the Eurozone, German and Eurozone ZEW survey readings came out weaker than expected, although this is not exactly surprising given recent market anxieties about inflation, interest rates and global growth in general. The ZEW survey is after all a survey of market participants like analysts and institutional investors so it can move dramatically when market sentiment also shifts in this manner, as it has done over the past month.

Swedish CPI was slightly stronger than expected this morning, with the core y/y rate rising to +1.6% (highest seen since the +1.6% rate also seen in December 2003) from +1.5%. This is still well below the Riksbank’s 2% target, but the Riksbank recently clarified their policy to slightly move away from a pure focus on this particular measure of core CPI. They said they would monitor a number of measures of core inflation as well as asset prices in the pursuance of their overall inflation target. Thus far EUR-SEK has stayed below the area (9.26-9.27) it broke below at the end of May, although there is a slight risk of a reversal of this move in the short-term.

Day Ahead
US – April PPI is probably the main focus of the market in the current circumstances, but retail sales and business sales/inventories data will also be watched for readings about the general state of economic activity. A month or so ago a weak sales number would probably have been cause for mild relief in the equity market because of the dovish implications for Fed policy. One could still make this argument, although in the current circumstances weak data would also increase the nervousness in the market about the ability of the US economy to withstand further tightening, if the Fed feels obliged to tighten for other reasons i.e. inflation. As for core PPI, this has been fairly well behaved in recent months (+0.1% in Feb and Mar), in contrast to the strength seen on core consumer prices.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Jun 10) w/w 07.45 +0.1% last
US Retail sales (May) m/m 08.30 +0.1%
US Retail sales ex-autos (May) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US PPI (May) m/m 08.30 +0.4%
US PPI core (May) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Redbook sls (w/e Jun 10) m/m 08.55 +1.9% last
US Business inventories (Apr) m/m 10.00 +0.6%
US Business sales (Apr) m/m 10.00 +0.8% last
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jun 11) 17.00 -17 last
AU Consumer sentiment (Jun) 21.30 -6.0% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Federal Budget (May) -$42.8bn -$36.6bn
NZ Retail trade (Apr) m/m -0.1% +0.5%
AU NAB business survey (May) +10 +12 last
JP Ind prod (Apr, final) m/m +1.4% +1.5%
ES CPI (May) y/y +4.0% +4.1%
SE CPI (May) y/y +1.6% +1.5%
SE CPI UND1X (May) y/y +1.6% +1.5%
GB CPI (May) y/y +2.2% +2.1%
GB CPI core (May) y/y +1.1% +1.2%
GB RPIX (May) y/y +2.9% +2.5%
GB RPI (May) y/y +3.0% +2.7%
EU ZEW expectations (Jun) 37.3 41.5
DE ZEW expectations (Jun) 37.8 45.0
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105