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Wednesday June 14, 2006 - 09:50:03 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Commodities unwinding supports the US Dollar
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar maintained its levels in the currency markets, it was largely helped by big position adjustments in commodity markets: Gold tumbled $60 or 10% to $545, Silver dipped more than 13% to $9.50, Oil and Gas was also sold, a barrel of Brent Crude changes hands at $68.20, this low was last seen mid-May. EURUSD stretched its lows to 1.2530 on the back of a larger than expected fall in the German ZEW, it maintained its bearish trend into the night, the short-term trend-line was finally crossed at 1.2560 early in Asia this morning. GBPUSD went for a first test of the 1.8350 key support, reaching 1.8330 is seems there is room for more, this morning it has retraced to 1.8440 â€“ this is a short-term sell level. USDJPY performed strongly, peaking at 115.30 before testing bullish support at 114.80 this morning. The BOJ stated its 2-day meeting, an announcement is due tomorrow, but we doubt very much that they will surprise the market with a surprise hike. More likely is a measured hawkish statement, confirming that rates will eventually have to go higher.
Todays Key Issues:
UK Unemployment data was weak, the unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in April, this is the highest level in nearly 4 years. US May CPI at 12.30GMT is expected to grow 0.4%, core CPI should be up 0.2%. ECB Trichet will speak in Paris at 1pmGMT. Expect more comments from the FED as two officials hold speeches this afternoon, the FED Beige Book, a business survey conducted 8-times per year is due at 6pmGMT.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: Short-term bearish trend was broken, but we see the risk of a correction to higher levels as small, strong initial resistance at 1.2600, more at 1.2640 and 1.2685, key resistance at 1.2740. To the downside, only little progress is expected, buyers are waiting for 1.2500, key support 1.2470.
Daily USDCHF: It rose to 1.2420 yesterday and is currently back at 1.2320. 1.2300 is strong support, 1.2260 is key level and medium-term bullish trend. For the rest of the week we look to continue ascending towards 1.2470/1.25 key resistance.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2685 S ||1.8610 S ||115.85 S ||1.2470 K |
|1.2640 M ||1.8530 K ||115.30 S ||1.2430 S |
|1.2610 S ||1.8450 S ||114.95 S ||1.2365 M |
|1.2590 ||1.8430 ||114.85 ||1.2325 |
|1.2565 M ||1.8395 M ||114.40 M ||1.2300 S |
|1.2525 S ||1.8350 K ||113.85 K ||1.2260 K |
|1.2470 K ||1.8280 S ||112.90 S ||1.2170 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
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