Thursday June 15, 2006 - 07:33:22 GMT
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Daily Technicals: Stick to long Dollar positions
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: It again traded at 1.2535 before a sharp rally lifted the pair to 1.2650 high, the day closed underneath of 1.2630. Outlook from here is unchanged in that we expect EURUSD to close the week low, the way there can be volatile or not. Strong initial resistance 1.2630, a break can see a rise to 1.2685, key resistance remains at 1.2740, sell ahead of reaching that level. Initial support 1.2585, 1.2550, next try at 1.2535 should give way, next support 1.2500, key 1.2470.
GBPUSD: The pair rallied to 1.85 from where it backed off to 1.8420. The pair is becoming more volatile again, but direction is not clear. The odds for a rise seem higher, a fresh attempt at 1.85 should stretch the top to 1.8530 key resistance, 1.8610 possible intra-day. Initial support 1.8420, a break leads to 1.8345 key support, a lower daily close is bearish towards 1.82.
USDJPY: 115.40 high was reached, slightly less than the day before, the 10-day bullish trend-line has been broken since and the pair retraced to 114.70. Minor support 114.65 is gate for a sharper fall, 113.85 strong support, 113.00 medium-term trend-line is key. On top 114.95 initial resistance, 115.30 strong, any higher would signify a third test of the 115.40 level which must break, next resistance 116.00, next target 116.65.
USDCHF: 1.2260 key support, while it holds prospects for a late-week rise towards 1.25 are good. This morning with a dip to 1.2275 was a buy opportunity for short-term traders, it can easily rise to 1.2335, stronger resistance at 1.2355 and 1.2410. Key resistance 1.2475.
@08:30GMT UK Retail Sales May
@09.00GMT Euroland CPI May
@12:30GMT US Weekly Initial Claims
@12:30GMT US Empire Manufacturing Survey June
@13:00GMT US Net Foreign security Purchases April
@13:15GMT US Industrial Production May
@16:00GMT US Philadelphia FED Survey June
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