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Thursday June 15, 2006 - 09:42:41 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
What will support the Dollar today?
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar tried higher levels early on Wednesday but failed to bypass the weekâ€™s highs, EURUSD held well at 1.2535, USDJPY re-tested levels above 115.30. US CPI was strong, particularly core CPI was again up 0.3%, expectations are for core CPI to continue rising strongly, confirming the view that the next FED rate hike is just around the corner, but it also enforces fears of an economic slow-down. The Dollar was sold after the data release, trading to 1.2650 in EURUSD. Cable had the biggest pip-gain, rising to 1.85 from 1.8350. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0% and they refrained from making any hawkish remarks, outlook is for the zero-rate policy to remain in place for another 2-months at least. Support for the YEN came in form of USDCNY trading a full day underneath of the psychological 8.00 barrier as the Chinese authorities continue to let their currency strengthen gradually. FED officials continue with hawkish comments, yesterday it was Dallas FED Fisher turn to say that the FED was doing the right thing controlling inflation, that they were not behind the curve and that further moves had to be expected. The next FOMC meeting will be held on June 29th.
Todays Key Issues:
The day started with a 25bp hike by the Swiss National Bank to rise interest rates to 1.5%. The move was anticipated and EURCHF went bid after the announcement. UK May Retail Sales are up 0.5% as expected, YoY growth stands at 4%, the April data was revised to 0.7% from 0.6%. Euroland May CPI is expected to increase 0.3%, Core CPI should grow just 0.1% for a YoY increase of 1.4% US weekly claims at .30 are expected to rise to 320k from last weeks surprise dip to 302k. The 4-week average is forecast to dip to 322k. At the same time the US Empire State Survey for June is forecast to weaken to 11 from 12.4 in May. At 1pm, Net Foreign Securities Purchases for April are expected slightly lower than the $69.8Bln in March, but at a still very high and Dollar supportive $65Bln. US May Industrial Production at 1.15pm should increase 0.1% (0.8% in April), Capacity Utilization ought to remain unchanged near the 82% level. Finally the June Philadelphia FED Survey at 4pmGMT is forecast to drop to 11 after 14.4 in May.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: Its traded a full day outside of the bearish trend and done a minor correction to 1.2635 so far. This is an important resistance, and we continue to look to extend the lows slightly closer to the 1.2470/1.2500 level over the next day or two. In case of a rise through the top, expect EURUSD to advance to 1.2700 or even 1.2750, suggest selling such a rally.
Daily USDCHF: It rose to 1.2420 yesterday and is currently back at 1.2320. 1.2300 is strong support, 1.2260 is key level and medium-term bullish trend. For the rest of the week we look to continue ascending towards 1.2470/1.25 key resistance.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2745 K ||1.8610 S ||116.00 S ||1.2470 K |
|1.2685 M ||1.8530 K ||115.30 S ||1.2410 M |
|1.2630 S ||1.8460 M ||114.95 M ||1.2355 S |
|1.2610 ||1.8435 ||114.90 ||1.2320 |
|1.2585 M ||1.8420 M ||114.65 M ||1.2290 M |
|1.2550 S ||1.8345 K ||113.85 S ||1.2260 K |
|1.2470 K ||1.8280 S ||113.00 T ||1.2170 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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