User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday June 15, 2006 - 10:04:06 GMT
Saxo Bank - www.global-view.com/saxo_bank/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market Update

US Core CPI shows signs of inflation - Triggers Broad-Based USD Selling

Despite the fact that markets are moving towards pricing in 5.50% FED Funds rate in August, we saw USD weaker after the higher than expected core CPI reading

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK Claimant Counts (May) increased to +5,800 MoM vs. median +5,000
• UK Average Earning (April) increased to +4.4% vs. 4.5% exp
• UK ILO Unemployment (Feb-April) + 77,00, highest since Oct-Dec 05
• UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Feb-April) 5.3% highest since Jul-Sept 02
• EMU 1Q Employment rose 0.3% QoQ and 0.9% higher YoY
• EU French BoF revises French 2Q GDP forecast to 0.7% QoQ from previous forecast of 0.6%
• US CPI MoM (May) 0.4% vs. 0.4% exp.
• Core CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (May) 0.3% vs. 0.2% exp.
• US Fed´s Beige Book – Slowing US economy
• UK RICS House Price Balance higher to 20% vs. 14%
• Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM (April) 1.3% vs.1.0% exp
• BoJ Monetary Policy Announcement & Monthly Report – No rate hike
• Japan Leading Economic Index (April F) 54.4% vs. 54.5% exp.
• Japan Coincident Index (April F) 80.0% vs. 70.0% exp.
• China Yuan trades below psychological 8.0 yuan level
• Iran’s foreign minister Mottaki described a new EU offer to halt uranium enrichment as “step forward”.
• South African 2Q Business Confidence drops to 82 vs 86 in 1Q. Zar moves to 11-month lows

The New York session USD Crosses saw massive rebound off the day’s lows as the pressure from CPI uncertainty was released. In Asia the theme was consolidation with a mild strength in the JPY.
Yesterday all eyes where focused on the US Consumer Price Index. When the numbers printed, CPI was inline with general market expectation but Core CPI had ticked up slightly. CPI (May) MoM .04% and 4.2% YoY. Energy was the biggest contributor with a 2.5% increase in May and a whopping 23.6% YoY. Core CPI ex Food & Energy up .03% and 2.4% YoY. Gains were spread over sectors which with owner equivalent rent again adding significant pressure. These stronger numbers puts core CPI at 3.8% annual rate and 2.4% YoY, well above Bernanke target inflation area. These accelerated numbers will keep the Fed in a tightening stance. We will be watching for continued hawkish FED rhetoric.

These new readings increases the probability that the FED will further raise rates above the forecasted 5.25% levels to 5.50% either by a two additional hikes in June and AUGUST or a single, dramatic 50bp hike on June 29th (although with current information this would be the less likely scenario). That said with a 25bp rate hike completely priced into the market traders of FED futures focused on Sept. By lunch of the NY session traders had priced in a 40% chance for a 5.5% rate when the contract expires at the end of Aug.


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• 6:45 FR Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1 F) 0.1% exp.
• 8:00 ECB Publishes Monthly Report (Jun)
• 8:30 UK Retail Sales MoM (May) 0.5% exp.
• 9:00 Euro-Zone CPI MoM (May) 0.3% exp.
• 12:30 US Empire Manufacturing (Jun) 11.0 exp.
• 13:15 US Industrial Production MoM (May) 0.2% exp
• 13:15 US Capacity Utilization (May) 82.0% exp
• 14:30 UK Leading Indicators Index (April) prior 0.6%
• 16:00 US Philadelphia Fed (June) 11.4 exp.
• 17:00 Fed Kroszner Speak in NY
• 18:00 Fed Bernanke Speaks on energy in Chicago

USD
US beige book was released yesterday evening provided evidence for increasingly USD bearish outlook. As the market expected economic growth is slowing (as evidenced in recent data) and critical economic drivers, housing and consumer spending were softer. In addition, tightness in labor markets, increasing cost pressures that can no longer be absorbed but passed on to consumers promote inflation. Today USD traders must watch for any FED speak that will prove future rate direction.

JAPAN
Its hard enough to decipher Japan’s economic situation without the added complexity of internal political strife. Comments on monetary policy and ethic breaches from the BoJ and LDP politicians have just added to the lack of clarity. As predicated the BoJ’s two day monetary policy meeting did NOT culminate in the ending of its zero interest rate policy. We believe this critical decision is still far off in earliest august. The rational for this view is simply Japan's inability to accelerate growth, rapid decline of equity markets and justified fears of deflation combined with a lack of focus on policy over politics. JPY should see a rebound in weakness against the majors especially after BoJ Governors Fukui (a man in a fragile position) after meeting press conference and into Europe trading.

CHINA WATCH
For only the second time since China’s National Foreign Exchange Center ended the 11-year-old USD peg, the Yuan official central parity rate was set below 8.0 to 7.9999 YUAN to the USD. This might signal greater flexibility for the official 0.3% pct trading band tolerated on either side of the central parity rate. In early Asia session, the news saw continued consolidation but USDJPY fell from highs around 115.50 to minor resistance at 114.50. However, its real positive effects will be seen in the longer term as the US moderates its protectionist rhetoric (a strategic move by China to preempt July’s G8 summit) and increasing China’s rabid demand for commodity.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2614 @ 06:35 GMT)
EURUSD provide the market with a near perfect whipsaw. Before yesterdays CPI the EURUSD tested the 1.2530 level (38.2 % retracement from 2006 highs) but lack the follow through to break this critical support. After CPI release and continued through Asia traders added to their long positions moving the pair to the two day highs below the 1.2600 levels. In the short term we should see continued EURUSD ranging between the 1.2530 – 1.2700 level. If that support breaks, we should be heading for 1.2400 which represents 50% retracement of the 1.1950 – 1.2980 rally. A move to the up side will have plenty of room to move. A pull back above 1.2700 is needed for the EUR bulls to regroup and focus higher again.

Trading stance: Look for buying opportunities above the break of 1.2650 for a move towards 1.24, stop kept below 1.2520

Resist.
1.2822
1.2707
1.2652
1.2614
1.2537
1.2478
1.2363
Support

Quoted:
15 Jun 06
06:35 GMT

British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8454 @ 06:35 GMT)
GBP/USD had a volatile day similar to all the majors. After challenging 1.8320 levels (a significant 38.2% Fib lvl) the cable found strength and began a move to the 1.8500 resistance only to consolidate between the 1.8350 – 1.8420. Until the BoE or Feds signal which direction rates will go we should continue in this tight range. Traders should look to play the ranges.

Trading stance: Stay aside, as we need to see some direction from BoE.
Resist.
1.8763
1.8589
1.8505
1.8454
1.8331
1.8241
1.8067
Support

Quoted:
15 Jun 06
06:35 GMT

US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (114.97 @ 06:35 GMT)
USD/JPY was unable to hold yesterday’s highs around of 115.40 and slowly retraced during late NY and Asia session. As expected the BoJ press conference provided little clarity and no rate hike. Despite the temporary reprieve on JPY selling we see continued broad-based JPY weakness with a slight resistance at 115.50 and April 24th high of 115.98, while 113.00 is the key swing level to the downside.

Trading stance: Buy dips towards 115.00 with stops below 114.70 and target in the 115.90 area.

Resist.
116.94
115.96
115.50
114.97
114.52
114.00
113.02
Support

Quoted:
15 Jun 06
06:35 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

IMPORTANT!
Please note that this email is never sent unsolicited. If you are currently online, follow these links to change your newsletter settings or to unsubscribe completely.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 15 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105