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Friday June 16, 2006 - 10:29:40 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Equity markets stabilise further, but corrective forces are unlikely to be over just yet.
• Bernanke avoided fresh hawkishness yesterday, although Fed discomfort on inflation is most probably still in place.
• Difficult for EUR-USD to advance too much in this environment – above key resistance at 1.2685- 1.2725 is required to extend short-term bounce.
• US balance of payments and Michigan sentiment feature today.

Market Outlook

Bernanke yesterday held back from advancing recent hawkish arguments any further, stating that inflation expectations (as indicated by the bond market) had fallen back recently. These comments helped to push equities higher on the day. However, he did not offer any comments (and comfort) on the actual inflation numbers, which remain elevated, so there is certainly no green light on Fed rate risk.

Equity market stabilisation is also likely to be due to a combination of bargain hunting and most probably a squeeze of short positions built up following the trend seen in recent weeks. As suggested yesterday, this offers some scope for a resumption of USD weakness, although we would caution against chasing such a move given that equity and emerging market vulnerabilities could easily return in the short-term. There have been other wobbles in these markets in 2006 (most notably in March) which have been reversed and on a medium-term view we are reasonably confident that both equity and emerging market assets classes will ultimately recover. The reason for this is that both the US and global economies should suffer only a modest deceleration in growth as a result of the monetary tightening now underway. However, it is going to be difficult for the market to sustain confidence in such a view in the short-term, with US inflation/interest rate fears persisting for the time being. In other words, equity/emerging market weakness will likely resurface next week and if this were to happen it would undermine any recovery in EUR-USD.

The main barrier to upside progress on EUR-USD remains at 1.2685-1.2725, which was previous range support. This needs to be cleared to extend any near-term recovery. Supports come in at 1.2585 and more significantly at 1.2500-30. The US balance of payments and Michigan sentiment data (the only releases of any interest today) could also affect USD sentiment.

With global markets on the mend (for the time being at least) some upside risk will remain on EUR-CHF, but 1.5560-65 needs to break to allow room up to 1.5630. However, as noted yesterday, given the high risk of a resumption of global market instability, EUR-CHF strength is unlikely to last too long.

Day Ahead
US – the Q1 balance of payments data is due out and on the basis of the merchandise trade deficit for Q1 a slightly lower current account deficit is a possibility. Indeed, this is what the market is forecasting. There will also be some interest in the FDI trend, now that last year’s repatriation is out of the way. Michigan sentiment is also out and on the basis of the weekly consumer sentiment surveys there appears to have been some stabilisation after the falls experienced in May.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Current account deficit (Q1) 08.30 -$223bn
US Balance of payments (Q1) 08.30
US Michigan sentiment (Jun, prel) 09.45 78.4
US Fed’s Kohn speaks 11.00

Latest data Actual Consensus*
EU Ind prod (Apr) m/m -0.6% +0.5%
EU Unit labour costs (Q1) y/y +2.2% +2.4% last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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