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Monday June 19, 2006 - 08:38:45 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar running near long-term resistance
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Trading on Friday was slow, the Dollar just managed to hold its levels and staged a late return to end the week at 1.2640. The US Current Account in the 1st Quarter stood at $203Bln, slightly better than expected and down $20Bln from Q4 2005.
The Dollar spiked this morning shortly after its open in an empty market. This move allows for Dollar bulls to maintain their positions with the outlook that the long-term support-level at 1.2470 (in EURUSD and USDCHF) has yet to be tested, therefore there is some upside potential for the Dollar from current levels.
USDJPY fared strongly this morning, it advanced to a 2-month high of 115.75 despite recent gains of the Chinese Yuan and an outlook of ongoing strength of the Asian currencies. Working for the Dollar is the fact that analysts are rethinking the date for an eventual rate hike by the BOJ, looking back at the last 2-months of comments made by BOJ and LDP officials, we note that no progress was made and a rate hike could be delayed for another 3 months.
Todays Key Issues:
Euroland April Trade Balance is due at 9amGMT. After a small surplus of â‚¬1.2Bln, it is believed to fall in negative territory: expectations are for a small deficit of â‚¬1Bln.
US June NAHB Housing Market Index at 5pm GMT is forecast to remain near its May-level of 45.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: The week starts with a still bearish Euro, bearish trend-line at 1.2630 is key for today. While underneath expect to continue trading lower slowly, strong support 1.2565 and 1.2530, target is the long-term rising trend-line at 1.2470. A break of the bearish trend-line stops the current bearish move, a rise to 1.2750 could be expected.
4-H USDJPY: Despite breaking the steeper bullish trend last week, USDJPY has held above 114.60 and reached a new high in the opening hours this morning. We still believe that the current rise is running out of momentum and see much greater risk in a pull-back to at least 114.60, a move to 113.85 would be the preferred scenario. Very short-term rising support at 115.50, while above it may spike to 116.10, next medium-term resistance is only at 116.75.
Resistance and Support:
|1.8475 M |
|1.8380 M |
|115.10 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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