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Monday June 19, 2006 - 10:20:26 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 19 2006, 05:48 GMT

USDJPY higher in Asia on worries that North Korea may go ahead with a missile test!

Chief Cabinet Sec Abe said Japan will respond severely if North Korea goes ahead with a ballistic missile test and that the UN Security Council may impose economic sanctions on the country.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Euroland Industrial Production (Apr) MoM down -0.6% vs. 0.4% exp.
• Euroland Industrial Production (Apr) YoY down 1.9% vs. 3.2% exp.
• US Current Account Balance (1Q) up -$208.78b vs -$222.0b exp.
• US U. of Michigan Confidence (Jun) up 82.4 vs. 79.0 exp.
• USD sees temporary strength on Guynn Speech. JPY under pressure from every direction.
• Japan's Tokyo Dept. Store Sales May (YoY), out at -0.3% with a prior reading of -0.5%.
• Japan's Nationwide Dept. Sales May (YoY) out at -1.1% with a prior reading of -0.6%.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Friday's US economic release and comment from St. Louis Fed Reserve president Poole on US accelerating inflation did little to strengthen the USD. With both Current Account Balance and U. Michigan Confidence Survey slightly outperforming the market expectations and expectation of increased tightening, we would have expected to see a stronger USD bounce. However, worries of an economic slowdown either cause by the FEDS over tightening or general global sluggishness cause traders to shy away for USD.

As Monday began to take shape speculation on FED Bank President Jack Guynn speech today will focus on the US’s positive economic outlook. This reassured helped traders that a slowdown might be avoided and caused temporary USD strength across the board.

USDJPY –A combination of factors weighed heavily on the JPY in Asia session. First was China’s decision to increase banks reserve requirements by .5%., then renewed aggression with North Korea and finally speculation on Atlanta’s FED Guynne’s speech and finally This week JPY will be at a cross roads caught between USD selling and geopolitical threats from North Korea.

EURUSD - Industrial Production fell - 0.6% vs. a gain of 0.4% expected in April. This negative result sends slightly mixed view of the current growth outlook for the Eurozone. We will look for clarity in this week’s economic calendar, starting with today’s Trade Balance to add some clarity.

GBPUSD - With a very light economic calendar, the markets will be looking to the release of the BoE Minutes on the 21st. This should provide clarity to the Central Banks mind set on current interest rate and inflation environment. We believe these minutes will show and increase in members voting for a hike adding significant strength to GBP bullishness.

AUDUSD – AUD continue to get hurt because high correlation to commodity prices. Commodities such as zinc and copper make up roughly 60% of Australia’s exports. In Asia session, AUD saw strong selling on speculations that falling metal prices and decline in Australian equity markets signals a global slowdown and speculators renewed risk aversion. With persistence fear of weakness in the global economy AUD will continue to suffer.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2588 @ 05:47 GMT)

Weekly update 18-06-2006:
EURUSD continues to find renewed upside after the corrective recovery from a test of 1.2537 38% retracement from (1.1823-1.2979) from the February bull wave. We favor the upside with short term bullish confirmation if the pair is able to break 1.2692 resistance which would give scope for a retest of the inverse head and shoulder target at 1.2980 where a close above would suggest longer term upside acceleration for a 1.3200+ target. For the downside key support is now at 1.2537 and again at 1.2400 50% retracement support.

Monday: EURUSD loosing ground through Asia on with stops going through below 1.2600. We still favor the upside in early Europe as long as 1.2530 remains intact, but looking for a stop reversal below for a test of 1.2400. Our upside target for today is challenge of Friday's highs at 1.2670.

Resist.
1.2752
1.2698
1.2670
1.2588
1.2615
1.2589
1.2535
Support

Quoted:
19 Jun 06
05:47 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8445 @ 05:47 GMT)
Weekly update 18-06-2006: GBPUSD has made swift recovery after the downside correction from 1.9023 highs from May 2006 was rejected at 1.8338 38% retracement (from 1.7123-1.9023). Daily stochastics are turning higher and we look for a close above 1.8530 this week which would give scope for a test of 1.8900 in weeks to come. Key support for the upcoming week is now at 1.8340 and again at 1.8130.

Monday: GBPUSD loosing some of its gains from Friday on Asian dollar buying, but only look to follow this trend if 1.8340 breaks which would give scope for a deeper correction to a test of 1.8130. For the upside we remain a buyer on dips above 1.8340.

Resist.
1.8695
1.8603
1.8554
1.8445
1.8463
1.8420
1.8329
Support

Quoted:
19 Jun 06
05:47 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (115.61 @ 05:46 GMT)
Weekly Update 18-06-2006: USDJPY’s upside corrective rally fell short of breaking 115.50 wave resistance and we remain with a slight bearish view as long as 115.50 remains intact. A close above would suggest a test of 116.00. But our preferred scenario is the downside and we look for a break of 114.50 to accelerate the downside for a short term target of 113.00.

Monday: USDJPY higher in Asia on worries that North Korea may go ahead with a missile test. The pair took out 115.50 and a test of 116.00 looks likely unless 115.20 support is taken out in the upcoming European session.

Resist.
116.25
115.61
115.39
115.61
114.75
114.33
113.69
Support

Quoted:
19 Jun 06
05:46 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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