User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday June 19, 2006 - 21:09:41 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Even Weak Housing Data and North Korea Fails to Keep Away Dollar Bulls

DailyFX Fundamentals 06-19-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Even Weak Housing Data and North Korea Fails to Keep Away Dollar Bulls
• ECB Member Weber Reiterates the Central Bank’s Hawkish Stance
• Yen Juggles North Korean Risks with Talk of Ratings Upgrade by Moody’s

US Dollar

On the first day of the new trading week, we learned early on that inflation will continue to be the market’s primary focus – regardless of how bad the news may be for the US dollar. The housing market is showing more signs of giving way, which is an extremely dangerous development for the US economy. The National Association of Home Builder’s confidence index fell from 46 to 42 to an eleven year low. Homebuilders are becoming increasingly pessimistic on the future outlook for sales as prospective buyers begin to dissipate. Even if we do not see an immediate slowdown in new or existing home sales, we will probably begin to see the rapid pace of new home construction slow significantly. This trend will have ripple effects far beyond the construction sector to the viability of real estate agents and brokers as well as the profitability of home improvement stores such as Lowes and Home Depot. A deflation of the housing market bubble is inevitable, but the question that remains is whether we will just see some modest cooling or an all-out collapse. So far, the housing market only appears to be cooling but with signs of trouble reported in states such as California and Arizona, the risks are clear. Much of the country’s growth and consumer spending has been fueled by the rise in the housing market. If it gives, we could be facing a great deal of volatility. Therefore is the Federal Reserve’s strong stance on inflation and the market’s clear disregard for the data the smartest move? Regardless of the answer, it is what is happening right now as traders shrug off the housing market index and fresh tensions with North Korea to key completely off of the hawkish comments from Fed Presidents Guynn and Fisher. With the Federal Reserve meeting less than 10 days away now, another dose of tightening has become a reality. Yet, it may soon begin to be important to think about what comes after the June meeting. Even though the Fed is set to deliver another quarter point hike, will they signal that more is to come or will they opt to neutralize their statement? This remains the key question, especially since the market has already fully priced in the rate hike. Meanwhile, to our dismay, having finally had a chance to breathe a sigh of relief that Iran has called the international package of incentives for an end to their nuclear enrichment program a “step forward” in a long and tension filled battle of who will blink first, an old aggressor has reemerged. Although North Korea does not control a large part of the world’s oil stockpiles like Iran does, their proximity to Japan and the US’ already difficult relations with them still makes their threat risky. If tensions escalate and North Korea moves forward with testing of their long-range missile, expect the markets to become even more jittery.

Euro

After struggling to recover late last week, the downtrend in the EUR/USD remained so dominant that the Euro gave way once again to dollar strength. Weaker economic data certainly did not help as well as the region’s trade deficit widened to –EUR0.9 billion in the month of April from a downwardly revised –EUR0.3 billion. Although exports continued to grow, imports were surprisingly strong. This was attributed to the higher price of oil as well as the strong Euro. In the month of April, the EUR/USD rose from 1.22 to 1.24. We expect the balance to worsen in the month of May as the Euro shot from 1.24 to 1.2970. According to ECB council member Weber, the central bank remains hawkish and believes that they need to continue to be vigilant with inflation. Although Trichet’s comments were a bit tamer at the last meeting, there is no doubt that the central bank will be delivering more rate hikes. However, any tightening will come gradually and more conservatively, allowing them to extend their tightening cycle longer than the Federal Reserve’s. Meanwhile Switzerland reported stronger than expected industrial production figures. First quarter IP fell by only 1.9 percent compared to a 3.8 percent forecast (the previous figure was revised up from 6.8 percent to 7.1 percent). This also boosted the annualized rate from 4.1 percent to 9.2 percent. The Swiss economy has been holding steady with consumer prices, first quarter GDP and the unemployment rate all coming in stronger than expected, validating the central bank’s recent interest rate hike.

British Pound

With barely any economic data on the UK calendar today, the British pound continues to track the movements in the Euro. After rallying at the tail end of last week, the currency lost ground to the US dollar. According to online property site Rightmove, house prices increased 0.8 percent last month, which was right in line with expectations. There is little to expect from the UK this week. Even though the Bank of England will be releasing the minutes from their most recent meeting on Wednesday, no surprises are expected since recent economic data gives them little reason to sway far from their neutral stance. However if they had to pick a side, based upon recent comments from Chancellor Brown, the BoE still remains vigilant or slightly hawkish.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen tumbled against the US dollar today but gained strength against all of the other major currencies. If North Korea’s missile testing even comes close to Japan, the consequences would be extremely Yen negative. Japanese officials have already warned that Japan will respond “harshly” with the backing of the US and possibly even Australia if the missile is launched. Geopolitical tensions are never good for the dollar but in this case, it is worse for the Japanese Yen. Offsetting some of the Yen bearishness however was news that Moody’s could be raising Japan’s sovereign rating over the next 12-18 months. This would be huge because Japan’s current rating prevents some funds with minimum rating requirements to invest in the country. Though far off, if the upgrade comes, we could see a surge in demand for Japanese stocks and bonds.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105