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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 20 2006, 05:49 GMT
JPY stronger across the board in late Asian trading on Fukui comments!

BOJ's Fukui says that the BOJ should adjust policy "without delay". A comment that could make a stronger JPY the theme to play in the European session.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance (Apr) -2.0b vs. -1.3b exp.
• EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance (Apr) -0.9b vs. -0.8b exp.
• Canadian Int’l Securities Transactions (Apr) C$3.895 vs. C$3.000 exp.
• Canadian Wholesale Sales (Apr) MoM 0.1% vs. 0.4% exp.
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun) 42 vs. 45 exp.
• A senior official at Japan's Foreign Ministry said North Korea may not fire a Taepodong-2 missile. The official dismissed media reports that Pyongyang has completed fueling the missile for an imminent launch; saying the Ministry does not have information of the fuel injection.
• BoJ: Fukui says rates to change if economy follows predicted path, and with no delay. Current monetary policy is extremely accommodative. BoJ members say JPY requires close monitoring, dollar drop unlikely hurting companies. Fukui says no predetermined timing for rate increase. BoJ members say policy need to consider stock market impact. One BoJ member say risk to policy being too stimulative.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
USD
Overall the USD got considerable mileage out of yesterdays geopolitical events as the market ignored a lower then expected NAHB in exchange for safety. Today’s Building Permits and Consumer confidence could be the wake up call to traders that the critical housing market is cooling and economic expansion is slowing to 3.5%. However as long as political risk still linger, higher interest rates differential will continue to attract capital and support the USD.

CAD
Today’s CPI numbers should provide critical for the direction of the CAD. Canada’s last rate decision was accompanied by the statement that inflation will be held under the 2% level. While the June 9th better then expected unemployment rate of 6.1%, strength the USDCAD 2.5%, fueled by speculations on a rate hike, policy makers have been clear the focus is on inflation not employment. Today’s CPI number should show little signs of inflation pressure lowering hopes of interest rate tightening. But with the stronger then expected Foreign Purchases, traders will continue to value Canada’s growth and Flight to Safety.

AUD
AUDUSD staged an impressive rally in early Asian trading. However fragile metal prices and eroding interest rate differentials continue to take it toll. With copper prices hitting lows yesterday and fears of a global slow down the AUD paid the price.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2588 @ 05:35 GMT)

Weekly update 18-06-2006: EURUSD continues to find renewed upside after the corrective recovery from a test of 1.2537 38% retracement from (1.1823-1.2979) from the February bull wave. We favor the upside with short term bullish confirmation if the pair is able to break 1.2692 resistance which would give scope for a retest of the inverse head and shoulder target at 1.2980 where a close above would suggest longer term upside acceleration for a 1.3200+ target. For the downside key support is now at 1.2537 and again at 1.2400 50% retracement support.

Tuesday: EURUSD doing very little in Asia with the US NABH index in NY sparking no volatility. We still favor the upside in early Europe as long as 1.2530 remains intact, but looking for a stop reversal below for a test of 1.2400 if support breaks. Our upside target for today is 1.2650.

Resist.
1.2791
1.2692
1.2634
1.2588
1.2535
1.2494
1.2395
Support

Quoted:
20 Jun 06
05:35 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8440 @ 05:35 GMT)
Weekly update 18-06-2006: GBPUSD has made swift recovery after the downside correction from 1.9023 highs from May 2006 was rejected at 1.8338 38% retracement (from 1.7123-1.9023). Daily stochastics are turning higher and we look for a close above 1.8530 this week which would give scope for a test of 1.8900 in weeks to come. Key support for the upcoming week is now at 1.8340 and again at 1.8130.

Tuesday: GBPUSD trying to keep last weeks gains but struggling with the market buying dollars, but only look to follow this trend if 1.8340 breaks which would give scope for a deeper correction to a test of 1.8130. For the upside we remain a buyer on dips above 1.8340.

Resist.
1.8769
1.8604
1.8508
1.8440
1.8343
1.8273
1.8108
Support

Quoted:
20 Jun 06
05:35 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (115.12 @ 05:35 GMT)
Weekly Update 18-06-2006: USDJPY’s upside corrective rally fell short of breaking 115.50 wave resistance and we remain with a slight bearish view as long as 115.50 remains intact. A close above would suggest a test of 116.00. But our preferred scenario is the downside and we look for a break of 114.50 to accelerate the downside for a short term target of 113.00.

Tuesday: USDJPY not able to break through the 116.00 barrier with the North Korean missile situation not putting more pressure on the JPY. We will look to sell rallies today as long as 116.00 resistance remain intact for a test of 115.00 in today's trading session.

Resist.
116.93
116.19
115.86
115.12
115.12
114.71
113.97
Support

Quoted:
20 Jun 06
05:35 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

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