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Wednesday June 21, 2006 - 09:03:45 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Long wait for FOMC
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
It was slow trading again on Tuesday, the most important news this morning is that the short-term bearish trend in EURUSD and Cable were both broken overnight. This should stop the Dollar from gaining too much value in the short-term, going into the FOMC meeting next week, we expect the currencies to be held in tight ranges over the next 3-5 trading days. For the Euro, whoâ€™s medium-term key-support remains unchanged underneath of 1.2500 it means that we look to range-trade 1.2550/1.2750 for the time being, Cable is expected to hold above 1.83 and has potential for gains up to 1.87 in coming days.USDJPY also weakened overnight, the strong support at 114.65 came under fire in Asia this morning, resulting in a very short-lived dip to 114.40. Going forward, we expect the YEN to continue strengthening slowly, target is 113.85 by tomorrow.The BOJ pre-occupation has shifted to BOJ Governor Fukuiâ€™s personal finances, an investment made prior to joining the Central Bank has come under questioning after the manager of that fund was arrested for insider trading. LDPâ€™s Nakagawa came to support Fukui, saying that no BOJ rules were broken and that they did not seek further explanations regarding this matter. PM Koizumi later also said that he did not think that Fukui needed to resign, questioned on interest rates he said that it was up to the BOJ to decide to end the zero-rate policy, but that he expected them to collaborate with the government.ECB Trichet this morning said that risks to growth where will balanced in the short-term. Upside risks in inflation are likely to remain throughout this and next year, as high energy prices today will influence price developments into next year. He ended hawkish saying that current monetary policy is still accommodative and inflation expectations must remain well anchored, analysts expect the ECB to lift interest rates by another two rounds of 25bp each to 3.25% before the end of the year.
Todays Key Issues:
The Bank of England MPC minutes of the last rate meeting will be released today at 8.30GMT. EU/US summit in Vienna.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: 10-day bearish trend was broken at 1.2590, since then it rose to 1.2630. Minor bullish support at 1.2605 and stronger support at 1.2580 are believed to hold, expect the Euro to continue gaining slowly towards 1.27.
2-H USDCHF: The only Dollar where the short-term bullish trend is still in place. Trend-line at 1.2360 this morning needs close attention, while above we may try 1.2430 again, key resistance at 1.2470 is expected to offer very tough resistance, suggest selling spikes. A breech at 1.2360 should see a rapid dip to 1.2310 first strong support, underneath the 1.2260 level remains key.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2750 K ||1.8610 S ||116.10 S ||1.2470 K |
|1.2685 S ||1.8530 S ||115.45 S ||1.2425 S |
|1.2630 T ||1.8480 M ||115.10 M ||1.2385 M |
|1.2620 ||1.8460 ||114.75 ||1.2360 |
|1.2605 M ||1.8445 M ||114.65 S ||1.2360 T |
|1.2580 S ||1.8425 S ||114.30 M ||1.2310 S |
|1.2550 S ||1.8350 K ||113.85 K ||1.2260 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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