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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 21 2006, 05:53 GMT

USD declines through NY and Asia on US building Permits data!
The trend is clear with the slowdown of building permits since Sept 2005. We expect this to put further pressure on the dollar in the upcoming European session as slowing US growth could today's focus

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Sweden’s Riksbank increased its repo rate to 2.25% from 2.00% yesterday in a much expected move. Rising inflationary pressures and accelerating growth prompted Riksbank to move on the offensive. If data continues on its current trajectory there is little doubt for an addition hike in august.
• The mixed data in US Housing Starts and Building Permits failed to impress the market sending the USD down after Mondays rally. Traders speculated that FED rate hikes have finally begun to take its toll on the US economy.
• Lots of remarks from Japan regarding its ZIRP policy. Hawkish comments from the Governor of the Bank of Japan Toshihiko Fukui helped strength the JPY. Today Tanigaki stated “interest rate normalization need in the future;” while Koizumi, always the diplomat, says that BoJ should work with the government on rate decisions in order to support the economy.
• Japans Business Sentiment down to 1.8 vs 6.1 prior. BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ dropped to 1.4 from 3.1.
• Canada higher then expected CPI numbers which showed signs of inflations sent the USDCAD down one figure in less then five minutes. This core number which matched the Canada’s central banks target rate caused traders to speculate on a rate hike in the near future.
• Westpac MI April Leading Index Rises 0.6% and strengthens the AUD in Asian trading.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
GBP
Today will prove to be critical for the direction the Cable. Today’s release of the BoE minutes and comments could provide the spark GBP bull’s need. With increasing data showing a UK economy warming up, traders are questioning then the BoE would signal an end to the current pause cycle and raise rate to 4.75% from 4.5%. However the BOE might hold steadfast and resist tightening on the ground at the robustness in the housing market and increases in energy prices will filter through the rest of the economy. Quietly the BoE might be holding rates steady in anticipation of a coming global slowdown.

CAD
Canada’s economy is on a roll and the market is looking to support the CAD. Today’s Retail Sales data will continue to show an economy accelerating. Markets will be paying special attention to Leading Indicators which in the last few years has become excellent gauge of GDP.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2619 @ 05:52 GMT)
Weekly update 18-06-2006: EURUSD continues to find renewed upside after the corrective recovery from a test of 1.2537 38% retracement from (1.1823-1.2979) from the February bull wave. We favor the upside with short term bullish confirmation if the pair is able to break 1.2692 resistance which would give scope for a retest of the inverse head and shoulder target at 1.2980 where a close above would suggest longer term upside acceleration for a 1.3200+ target. For the downside key support is now at 1.2537 and again at 1.2400 50% retracement support.

Wednesday: we saw a sell-off before and right after the US housing data, but the 1.2530 support remained intact. Also the despite a better then expected housing starts, the building permits data has showed a clear decline with the trend hitting lower, which likely helped EURUSD moving above 1.2600. For today we expect this double bottom on hourly charts to be the lows for now and we remain a buyer on dips with stop below 1.2530 for a possible 1.2695+ target.

Resist.
1.2735
1.2657
1.2617
1.2619
1.2539
1.2500
1.2422
Support

Quoted:
21 Jun 06
05:52 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8455 @ 05:52 GMT)
Weekly update 18-06-2006: GBPUSD has made swift recovery after the downside correction from 1.9023 highs from May 2006 was rejected at 1.8338 38% retracement (from 1.7123-1.9023). Daily stochastics are turning higher and we look for a close above 1.8530 this week which would give scope for a test of 1.8900 in weeks to come. Key support for the upcoming week is now at 1.8340 and again at 1.8130.

Wednesday: GBPUSD continues to remain well bid below 1.8400 through yesterday's trading session and the BOE minutes coming out today should set a clear pace for this pair for the next 24-48 hours. Look to continue to buy on dips unless 1.8340 support is taken out,for a test of 1.8550.

Resist.
1.8601
1.8508
1.8463
1.8455
1.8370
1.8322
1.8229
Support

Quoted:
21 Jun 06
05:52 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (114.69 @ 05:53 GMT)
Weekly Update 18-06-2006: USDJPY’s upside corrective rally fell short of breaking 115.50 wave resistance and we remain with a slight bearish view as long as 115.50 remains intact. A close above would suggest a test of 116.00. But our preferred scenario is the downside and we look for a break of 114.50 to accelerate the downside for a short term target of 113.00.

Wednesday: USDJPY remains heavey and we continue to look for a further sell-off in today's session. Only a break of 115.30 would challenge the recent highs. Look to sell rallies with stop above 115.70 for a test of 113.50-60 support area.

Resist.
117.10
116.09
115.52
114.69
114.51
114.06
113.04
Support

Quoted:
21 Jun 06
05:53 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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