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Thursday June 22, 2006 - 09:07:02 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Slow trading continues in the Forex-markets, the short-term bullish trend in USDCHF has now also been broken and we expect to remain range-bound for the next few days. EURUSD rose to 1.2680 overnight, with strong resistance ahead of 1.27 intra-day traders should be inclined to sell. Markets were a lot more active in Gold, it was up $20 yesterday as its recovery from the large crash 10 days ago is well under way. Expect strong resistance at $600 to slow down the current rise, short-term players are expected to taking profit and the commodity is expected to range between $560 and $600 for a while.Minutes of the latest Bank of England interest meeting revealed another 7:1 vote in favor of leaving rates unchanged, the 1-vote opposition was in favor of a rise. While the strong increase in PPI Input bears the risk of driving inflation, wages have not risen and the BOE continues to see risks on either side. Interest rates are therefore expected to remain unchanged for now and BOE governor King enforced this view saying: â€˜We donâ€™t say where interest rates will go next because we donâ€™t know.â€™ECB Liikanen repeated hawkish comments that inflation pressure was pointing higher and that current interest-rate levels were near historic lows. The French Finance Minister Thierry Breton hit in the same curb, saying that no 2nd round effects of oil-price increases were seen as the recent rate hikes contained inflation extremely well.
Todays Key Issues:
Euroland April Industrial New Orders are due at 9amGMT, they should increase up to 3% after a 2-4% drop in March. YoY growth stands at 8% UK June Industrial Trends Index at 10am is forecast to remain low, it stood at -12 last month. US Weekly Initial Claims are believed to stand at 310k, rebounding from a strong 295k last week. The 4-week average is believed to stabilize around 310k, a level it held for large parts in March/April. US May Leading Indicators at 2pmGMT are expected to drop 0.4% after shedding 0.1% in April, YoY growth stands at 2%.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: It has developed a slightly more than 1-cent wide channel in which it can continue to trade sideways, 1.2570 â€“ 1.2685 are the boundaries today, beyond that lie key levels of 1.2470 to the downside and 1.2750 on top.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2750 K ||1.8610 S ||116.10 S ||1.2470 K |
|1.2710 M ||1.8530 S ||115.75 M ||1.2385 S |
|1.2685 S ||1.8480 M ||115.15 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2650 ||1.8430 ||114.95 ||1.2350 |
|1.2610 M ||1.8410 S ||114.65 S ||1.2310 S |
|1.2570 S ||1.8385 M ||114.30 M ||1.2260 K |
|1.2550 S ||1.8350 K ||113.85 K ||1.2200 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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