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Thursday June 22, 2006 - 10:57:02 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Global equities recover further, but emerging currencies weaken after early advances. Market
hesitancy to remain ahead of next week’s FOMC.
• Turkey scraps withholding tax for foreign investor holdings of bonds and equities, but TRY
• EUR-USD remains well capped by key short-term resistance.
• Strong Japanese export performance continues.

Market Outlook

A decent performance in US equities yesterday has spurred an improvement in Asian and European indices today (Nikkei up 3.4%) but performance in emerging currencies has been patchy. Turkey cancelled a withholding tax on foreign investor holdings of bonds and equities and this prompted an early recovery in Turkish assets including the TRY. However, USDTRY failed to break through support at 1.6200-60 and quickly turned tail, at the time of writing moving above yesterday’s high just below 1.68 (even though Turkish equities were still up 3%). The authorities will be disappointed with this response and some intervention could be forthcoming this afternoon if the reception in North American markets is also cool. 1.70 is a possible level they will seek to protect. The ZAR and eastern European currencies have also more than reversed initial gains seen this morning, suggesting that investors are using rallies to liquidate positions and/or to increase hedges on underlying asset positions they have decided to stick with.

It is clear that market anxieties remain high, despite the latest developments in equity markets and it is questionable how far investors will chase this upmove with next week’s FOMC meeting still outstanding. Some words of comfort are needed from that meeting and investors are likely to remain unclear about whether this will be forthcoming. As far as EUR-USD is concerned it is still struggling to make inroads above the bottom end of the key short-term resistance area running from 1.2680- 1.2725, reflecting the positional constraint on sizeable advances at the current time. The break back below 1.2655 early in Europe this morning was the latest sign of failure. Short-term downside risk below 1.2500-30.

Japanese data last night was fairly encouraging, with the all industry activity index reflecting the strength seen in the release of last week’s tertiary index and the trade surplus advancing smartly on the month. The latter was helped by more strength in exports, which remain in a decent uptrend (see chart). As yet there are few signs of a slowdown in overseas demand as far as Japan is concerned.

Day Ahead
New Zealand – GDP for Q1 is out tonight and should show a rebound from the stagnation seen during H2 2005. While this news is a little ‘old’ being for Q1 it should support the recent recovery in NZ rate expectations. The NZD did show vulnerability last night following the release of a wider than expected current account deficit for Q1. There is downside risk if it holds below 0.6145.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Initial claims (w/e Jun 17) 08.30 310k
US Continuing claims (w/e Jun 10) 08.30 2425k last
US Lead indicators (May) m/m 10.00 -0.4%
NZ GDP (Q1) q/q 18.45 +0.7%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Current account (Q1) -NZ$2.7bn -NZ$2.2bn
JP All-industry index (May) m/m +1.3% +1.1%
JP Trade balance (May, sa) ¥841bn ¥650bn
IT Consumer confidence (Jun) 106.8 107.6
EU Manu orders (Apr) m/m -0.2% +2.0%
IT Retail sales (Apr) m/m +0.6% +0.2%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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