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Friday June 23, 2006 - 08:54:05 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Can the Dollar break medium-term levels?
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The US Dollar rallied strongly on Thursday, notably Cable shed more than 2 cents, closing the day well beyond the 1.8350 support. While EURUSD also softened, the move was a lot more controlled and with a low of 1.2560 it has not broken any major chart-points. USDCHF outperformed EURUSD but the rise was stopped ahead of the medium-term bearish trend-line at 1.2450. The â€˜cross-overâ€™ point of EURUSD and USDCHF lies at 1.2500 today, expect this level to hold the week. USDJPY rallied to 116.30, the highest levels since the pairâ€™s sharp drop from 116.60 on April 24th after market-watchers criticize the handling of the Fukui case. While nobody argues about the BOJ Governor skills in handling Central Bank matters, his neutrality seems to be compromised after LDP officials came to his support and fears are growing, that a needed rate hike could be unnecessarily delayed. French Interior Minister Sarkozy criticized the ECBâ€™s goal of inflation monitoring. Unhappy about the fact that interest rates are being tightened while economic activity is stagnating, he said that it was urgent to review the Central Banks role. The FED reported a rise of $7.53Bln in US debt holdings by Foreign Central Banks for the week ending June 21st.
Todays Key Issues:
Only data today is the US Durable Goods Orders for the month of May at 2.30GMT, they are forecast to increase by 1% after a sharp 4.4% drop in April.
The Risk Today:
Daily EURUSD: With the return to 1.2565, the pair has again reached the bottom of the tight trading range, a break through 1.2560 this morning risks a test of the underlying medium-trend at 1.2470, this is the key support. While 1.2560 holds, the pair can swing back into the 1.26â€™-handle, strong resistance only at 1.2680.
4-H USDCHF: It is now trading at the medium-term bearish resistance, this will be the key level for tonightâ€™s close, additional strong resistance at 1.2500, the crossover-point with EURUSD. A return underneath of 1.2425 in the short-term is bearish for a fall back to 1.2335, strong support 1.2310.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2680 S ||1.8415 T ||117.00 S ||1.2500 K |
|1.2630 M ||1.8350 S ||116.75 K ||1.2470 M |
|1.2595 M ||1.8310 M ||116.10 S ||1.2445 T |
|1.2570 ||1.8270 ||116.00 ||1.2435 |
|1.2570 S ||1.8265 M ||115.50 M ||1.2415 M |
|1.2530 S ||1.8200 S ||114.65 S ||1.2380 M |
|1.2500 K ||1.8140 K ||113.95 T ||1.2300 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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